A long time coming...

That title could potentially refer to my lack of posting recently. Apologies for that. Things have been hectic again.

It also could refer to the recent turn in fortune over the last week or so. Up until the start of Punchestown I was looking at another awful month but things have very rapidly turned around and I'm hoping that by the end of the month we'll have a decent profit in place. Steve Lewis Hamilton came good yesterday last night and I watched the race on my PC... my heart was beating somewhat strongly towards the end but very pleasing. I hope its the start of a turnaround. Not a good idea for me to watch races I tell you!

Signed up to the Nagman following a review by ProGambler and JP mentioning on his blog and started off quite well. Looking at Packed Pockets as well now with v small stakes. Thinking about Personal Info but seem to have a lot of subs coming off at this time of year so may pause for a while on new services!!

Trying to keep overall staking within the same amount and I'll provide more details when i can.

Off to Musselburgh on Friday so looking forward to that.

Will post updates hopefully before then.

March Update & Other Thoughts

I had finished my March stats a while ago but haven't had a chance to upload them. Make for pretty grim reading which will come as no surprise. Without Berties Dream at Cheltenham it really would've been tears before bedtime so thanks to Double The Odds and Each Way Value (and of course Berties Dream) for keeping my dream alive!!

Here's the table;


Note that the Each Way Value bet on Berties Dream I had decided to double my stakes on EWV bets that day so there was a bit of lady luck shining on me there.

So really a poor end to the quarter overall which leads me to my next table, which is a summary of Q1 overall (including subscriptions);



A really disappointing start to 2010 which follows a disappointing end to 2009 and I haven't really had a particularly successful period since October.

It's certainly motivating me to put more work into this and makes me realise it's certainly not a case of putting the money on and watching the cash roll in. To make this successful you need to run it like a business.

Unfortunately April isn't heading in a positive direction either and I'm about £300 down at the moment.

So, what next? Really feel like i've made my first step on the right road with my decision re SLH bets. Need to do the same for Equine Investments although it's a matter of personal interest there as the service is hugely successful with the point structure the way it is.

On the watch list for me are;

* Mathematician (I've been with for several years but can't let sentimentality get in the way)
* Tipping Legends (not got a warm feeling at the moment despite a positive April so far)
* Tipping Legends Golf (not sure golf betting is for me - the gaps between successes are too long)
* Punter Profits (is it ever going to turn round - the stats say yes, my bank balance says no!!)

Have a few angles on personal bets that i hope will bear fruit. I've made a small profit in April so far on these.

Also need to make a decision as to whether i join any new services but must be at the expense of existing.

Will keep posting.

Steve Lewis Hamilton (SLH) Analysis - Pt 3

I've completed some additional analysis and having had 24 hours to mull over what i found out yesterday I've made a decision on my staking plan for SLH.

I replayed the results over the same period as yesterdays analysis with level staking of £70 win or £35 e/w for each bet and the results are quite interesting. See table below;



Overall profit has gone up by £749 an it's taken £1,208 less in stakes to get there which bumps my overall ROI up to spectacular 61.33% from a not to be sniffed at 52.69%.

For me it's a no brainer - I'm moving to level stakes for SLH bets.

I think I'd feel more comfortable staking that way as it will certainly smooth out returns as well.

I terms of total stake over the period I was comfortable with the amount staked so I am moving my staking upwards to mean that I bet roughly the same amount overall. This will take me to £75 win and £37.50 each way.

I'm quite happy with this and I think the analysis has reassured me that I'm making the right decision - certainly never wanted to be lumping £105 or £140 on 4 point bets for a couple of reasons;

(1) I've not been doing this for long enough to feel comfortable with such large stakes and
(2) It's drawn the attention of too many bookmakers and my bets are being restricted more and more.

I'll say my only caveat to this is for e/w doubles that are more than 1pt e/w then I will follow the staking plan - the reward is worth the risk for these.

I'm going to do the same analysis with equine investments to see if i can realistically move from points based to level. Also need to update my March results to give you the final position (it wasn't pretty despite Berties Dream winning at 50/1!)

Hopefully you find this useful for your own betting strategies as well.

Steve Lewis Hamilton (SLH) Analysis - Pt 2

I've managed to complete some further analysis on SLH bets and it makes for some interesting reading. I've brought the stats right up to date so includes the two account bets yesterday.

The total table is below split by points.



I've covered the period from 08 October 2008 which is when I know my record keeping is relatively robust - this is a few months after i started with SLH as you'll know from previous posts.

The table assumes £35 per point. Over the period I've been with SLH I've increased my points stake from £25 per point to £35 per point so i had to go back and alter stakes and profits to bring it all in line to my current stake level. Took some time I tell you!!

What it does show clearly that the service over the period i have been with it is hugely profitable - a whopping 52.69% ROI. Interestingly the 3 point bets have been the least successful and if I'd ignore all bets apart from the 2 pointers I would have had a return of 104.16% over the period.

The next three tables split the years down;

2008



2009



2010



Certainly shows that there's been a drop off in profit in 2010 with ROI this year currently sitting at 2.55% which isn't great, nor is it comparable with the same period of 2008 and 2009 BUT still the 2 point bets are producing a very very healthy profit. It's everything else that isn't great this year and dragging ROI down.

I think i need to make a decision on how to play SLH going forward;

1) Do I continue as is, accepting suggested staking plan; or
2) Do I drop the 1 and 3 point bets which don't show a profit over the 18 months i've covered; or
3) Do I go to level stakes.

I've almost completed some level stake analysis which makes interesting reading and probably confuses my simple brain further. Will finish that off tomorrow.

All comments welcome.

"Grand" National....

Sorry it's been so long since I've updated. Things have been a bit hectic of late. Good news is that I managed to come out the back of another big meeting relatively unscathed. Small profit I am presuming over the course of the three days at Aintree but I have to say between my wife and I we had bets on about half the horses in the national and didn't get a single place other than Black Apalachi which I'd put a fiver on based on someone on Danny Bakers radio show claiming that his goldfish went mental every time he mentioned that horses name!! I'd only heard the story second hand when i was in the pub... It's a funny old game....

Steve Lewis Hamilton (SLH) Analysis

I've finally managed to getting round to completing my analysis of SLH results since I joined the service. This was on the back of feelings that the points waged didn't have an impact on the chances of winning (if you know what i mean). It's also part of some work I'm doing on my staking plans and where to go next with some of the tipsters.

First thing I've done with SLH results is a basic analysis on the number of bets and points and percentage winners / losers.

(see below for some caveats to the table)



As you can see the 2 point bets are the most common - which is good news as they are the most successful bets in terms of winners. 1 point bets are the least successful bets (as you would expect). 4 point bets 2nd most successful and 3 point 3rd most. Now I would expect the 4 point bets to be the best, 3 point next etc.

What that does do is strenghthen the arguement for moving to level stakes for SLH. I'm going to do two more things - (1) split the table into years and then (2) compare level stakes to points stakes and see where we end up! I'm also going to do some work on strike rate over time etc.

The time I've been with SLH has been incredibly successful and while strike rate in 2010 certainly looks like its been lower, I'm still in profit for 2010 and I can not fault the service over the long term - I know there are many doubters now out there - my recommendation would be - stick with it! (or maybe don't - then it would be easier to get bets on at recommended prices!!) ;-)

The information is taken from my personal spreadsheets and worth pointing out some caveats to the table;
1) I joined SLH in July 2008 so records only from then
2) My spreadsheet update work has at times been poor so some bets will be missing or inaccurately input and there are periods when I was on holiday that will also be excluded
3) Results only up to 19 March 2010
4) Overall therefore I'd suggest I'm about 95% accurate but still a good guide.

Cheltenham Day 4

On Thursday night my account was sitting at its lowest point I'd ever seen it for a single month... -£1,280 and I'll be honest with you it was feeling pretty painful all in all despite in the back of my mind i know this is a long term game and i've had losing periods before...

Thanks to a fantastic last day on the betting front I walked out the other end of Cheltenham with my account now sitting at -£48!! I know not in profit but much much better!!

Big winner of the day was Berties Dream at 50/1 in the 2.40 at Cheltenham which both Each Way Value and Double The Odds put up.

I'd decided to double my stakes on Each Way Value and what a day to do it!! Double The Odds purple patch continued and i manged to get 55 on Betfair!

Happy days...

It was a good day overall. I'd had a some side bets on Imperial Commander, Pigeon Island and Pause & Clause with the work syndicate I was in so was well chuffed...

Will be back as much as possible with updates etc over the next few days.

It's a funny old game!