Saturday, March 10, 2012

Cheltenham Fever....

The excitement of Cheltenham seems to be building all around!! Lets hope it lives up to expectations... I for one am dreading it! The huge volume of bets already placed has made me nervous and there will be many more on the 4 days the festival runs for. I am worrying that if I've go 4-5 tips in one race then they will cancel each other out at the very best - the worst being of course that they will lose and heavy losses occur!

Cheltenham last year was, of course the turning point of the year last year. Here's hoping it will be the same this year as the poor start to the year continues. Some of the wounds this year have been self-inflicted although Thursday was out side my control but overall performance of many hasn't been good. Steve Lewis Hamilton and Northern Monkey are the two that stand out as having poor 2012's so far. Correspondingly the year is going well for others and Piecost in particular is doing well and continuing to show promise.

Today it was the turn of football to let the account down with Formlab giving back some of previous profits. Excellent results from Piecost and Hudson today.

As you know I'm following an excessive number of services up to the 31st March to help me make a decision on how to proceed. It's worth giving an update of where I probably will get to;

Steve Lewis Hamilton - as has been well documented its been a dreadful few months for Steve and the recent run was only broken by a short priced winner on Thursday (less said about that the better!). However I've been there before with SLH and things have invariably picked up again. Ultimately though it's about subscription fees for me - with the subs coming in at the best part of £900 - then there are better or equivalent services out there that are available at less than half the price and it feels like time to move on.

Equine Main / Turnover - as I've mentioned before the service finishes up for the season at the end of next week and I won't be renewing with the new re-combined "pay as you play" service as the costs are too high for the level of subs on offer and again they are better or equivalent services available at much much lower prices.

Northern Monkey, 4PA, Systematic and Piecost - will definitely continue with these four services. Northern Monkey haven't had a good year so far but I don't think this time of year is Wayne's strongest period. The only issue in these four for me is the cost of Systematic but based on past performance even at £20 per point it delivers.

Market Examiner - my subs are paid to June for Market Examiner but I'm not sure where to go with this one - it's been a rough period since I joined - a fact confirmed by the SBC tipster report which doesn't show much progress over the last 6 months. I think it could be the end of the road for me as I can probably get more out of other services.

The Football Analyst - am likely to continue into next season - results, ease of getting bets on and communication all excellent. Although there does seem to be a question mark over the performance over the 2nd half of the season.

New boys Formlab, Herbie Fogg and Hudson... Formlab is great and I need to get tucked into the data analysis as well as following the daily reports. Hudson - very impressed with so far. Herbie Fogg - a good service in terms of communication and past results speak for themselves (although obviously I joined during a poor spell - surprise surprise). My one question mark is over the varied times of the bets - although I could rectify this by paying more to get the texts.

I'm also following the TVB blog which has been a profitable exercise so far!

As you know have already ditched Football Elite and Mr Gekko Bets.

To be honest it's been harder than I thought in making a decision as I do believe all the services I do follow all have strong positives but I do need to reduce and it may end up being a table and I take the top 5-6 no matter how service 7,8,9 etc perform.


The Cat said...

Hi there, great blog, makes essential reading!

I know that pre-Cheltenham feeling all too well! I've gone for a new approach this NH season, I bought the book One Jump Ahead and decided to back every runner (plus the Bromley best buys, same book) to 1 point level stakes regardless of price & form. I also follow the brilliant 10 to follow from Bet Catalyst as its never failed to return a profit (flat or NH) for the last 3 or 4 years.

So as you can imagine, heading into next week, I am 3 or 4 deep on some races, and that's on 20-1 shots in the handicaps!

Good luck and lets hope come Friday we are all smiling!

Anonymous said...

It would be interesting to see a table comparing the last 3 months or 6 months of your current tipsters. As you say, that would make it easier to decide which ones to ditch and which ones to keep. I think you need to be ruthless.

Anonymous said...

It says on the Hudson website that the service has closed. Is this correct?

mrh-beats said...

Hi "The Cat" - thanks for your comment.

Was looking at "Horses to Follow" ideas for the forthcoming flat season so would be interested to hear how you got on in the NH season?

Good luck and yes fingers crossed!

Hi Anon - yes good point - am planning to sit down and do some analysis at the end of this month. Definitely need to be ruthless.

Hi Anon - yes - I had an email this evening saying the tipping services are closing down - rubbish as I've just joined and looks great!