Sunday, July 31, 2011

Steve Lewis Hamilton Update - Part 2

One of the things that is always worth looking at when following a tipster is to see if there are any angles at eeking out extra profit or perhaps smoothing returns.

While tipsters maybe great at what they do (or otherwise!!) sometimes staking can be slight off. I certainly found this when reviewing Steve Lewis Hamilton last year - there appeared to be no value in betting more than 2 points on any of his bets - the 3 or 4 point bets didn't deliver extra. This meant I knocked my points back to a maximum of 2 points - something that I've followed since and it's not had any detrimental impact on overall ROI from what I can see.

Part 2 of the update looks at recent months and e/w performance vs. actual performance. Steve definitely has a lot of places and might be worth doing 1 point e/w rather than 2 points. I've looked at the last four months (April - July 23rd). While it's a relatively short period of time I think it gives the necessary indication of whether its an angle worth pursuing - haven't had time to bring my account up to date for July. I've knocked out the double bets as well (if you are wondering why the figures don't match the last table).

Here's the (small) table;

What does this tell me? Straight up following staking is better - less points, more wins, higher points and higher ROI! Simples.... Well yes but... - the ROI for the e/w performance is lower but certainly the returns are smoother and May and July have certainly proved better. Points profit isn't much different though - ROI is reduced simply because you need to bet more!

My view - sticking to staking better but I'm definitely going to keep an eye on the e/w option.

Hope that helps.

Part 3 of my review will look at whether it's better to move to level stakes vs. current stakes and I'll update table.

Excuses excuses...

Sorry i've not been on for a while. My 'real' job has been somewhat hectic over the last while and clearly that takes priority. Anyway just a quick post to say I'll pop my part 2 of the Steve Lewis Hamilton review on the blog late tonight - just working through the figures today.

Hope u all had a profitable Goodwood. Think I treaded water at best from the looks of things. Good to see 4pa having some winners though and there were a couple of very near misses again which would've landed bumper payouts!

Wednesday, July 27, 2011

Shaky Ground

Wasn't particularly excited about "Glorious" Goodwood in the lead up and nothing in the last 2 days has really changed my feelings about it!

4PA's dismal run of form continues with a 5 point whitewash on Tuesday and no bets today. Feels like a lack of confidence as well as although Frankel came up as a 4/5 system bet this morning PCB passed on it - seemed like decent value when you see it go off at 8/13 SP. Lets hope things will turn around - really need to as all profit in 2011 has been completed wiped out over the month of July for 4PA and I always bet small stakes on the basic system bets - would be a lot worse without them.

Does feel like 4PA is on shaky ground - while long term profit figures are excellent - and there's a lot to like about the service - it's not overly cheap and 7 months into the year we're in negative - think you should expect more from a premium service. HOWEVER one dog year doesn't make a dog life.

Not much really going my way today with Equine and Equine Turnover both drawing a blank today with a number of bets although Systematic continues to plug away quietly and efficiently.

Disappointing overall though - maybe day 3 will change things......

Monday, July 25, 2011

Looking forward to Goodwood?

After a dismal weekend for many reasons things turned around today with good winners from Systematic, Equine Investments and Equine Turnover and put a few points back on the board after 5 bad losing days.

There were two two tipster tips today with Mariners Lodge with both Equine and Systematic and Royal Blade for both Equine Turnover and Systematic - both coming in as winners! So maybe I should add a bit of extra to my stakes when there's more than one tipster tipping?

Goodwood starts tomorrow - fingers crossed it's good one - I could well miss a few bets tomorrow as I'm on the road and won't be able to get to my phone too easily but thats a fact of trying to do it part time.

Sorry I haven't had a chance to update my SLH review - time is a bit tight at the moment - hopefully will get it to this week.

Saturday, July 23, 2011

Hong Kong Island

Just a quick note to say it was Northern Monkey who tipped Hong Kong Island rather than Systematic. Given a dreadful ride by all accounts.

Friday, July 22, 2011

The bubble has burst

Inevitability is striking again as the bubble of ever increasing profits has been burst over the last few days with three bad days knocking the best part of £500 off YTD profits.

It's been a tough week with bookie restrictions / rapidly falling prices and other pressures preventing me getting bets on.

Today saw a few tipsters covering the same horse - a good thing according to Mr Gekko of SBC with stats showing that multiple tipped horses perform better - well it didn't happen today with Hong Kong Island (tipped both by Equine and Systematic) and Colour Vision (both Equine and Steve Lewis Hamilton) failing to win. Very frustrating.

Hopefully Saturday will turn things round but it's a bumper day of racing and that often isn't a good thing. Really need 4PA to find form again - we haven't had a winning bet since Brown Panther on the 16th June! Thankfully I follow the basic system bets as well which has dampened the pain of the losing streak but I'm still down £317 for the month on 4PA bets.

Nervy about Goodwood coming up as well - last year was a complete disaster and with none of my big guns performing too well at the moment doesn't help the feeling!

Suppose the highs and lows are to be expected and overall the year is still looking good.

Wednesday, July 20, 2011

More Bookie Problems

Unfortunately following the recent good run the inevitable has happened and I've been restricted by another bookie.

This time its William Hill which is a bit of a body blow as i've used them a lot over the last 2-3 years. I suppose it was going to happen but it still astonishes me the way my account has been restricted - especially by a company like William Hill.

This is a company who have a turnover of £1.07bn and made £193.3m profit in 2010. I made about £2-3k out of them. Here's a statement from the chief exec when 2010 results were announced in February;

“Looking forward, while we recognise that the economic environment will continue to be challenging in 2011 for all consumers, as is reflected in market expectations, we are confident our customer-focused, multi-channel approach, extensive product offering and our exploitation of technological advances ensure we are well-placed,” said the company.

Maybe he should have added - and we will begin only deal with losing punters. Perhaps the shares are worth buying.... Pathetic.

More seriously though it causes me an issue - and one that I am trying to resolve to continue getting the best odds available.

So how do I resolve?

There are clearly ways of opening additional accounts with bookies that have closed or restricted my account. Some of these have been documented through the likes of SBC.

In the meantime I've opened further accounts with additional bookies which will spread my bets a bit more.

Additionally I've decided to use Betfair more where it's sensible to do so - i.e. if price is within a set parameter of recommended by the tipster then I'll use Betfair.

It may mean that I will lose BOG benefit with some tips and not maximise profits but if I'm within about 5-10% of the recommended price it's probably ok in the interests of prolonging bookie accounts.

Clearly the use of Betfair is impossible for tipsters like Equine Investments where the price on disappears in seconds (if it is there at all). This problem is compounded by the fact that betting on Equine tips with bookies is more than likely to get your account restricted.

Anyway will see how this progresses in the short term while I consider the other options.

Far from ideal.

Tuesday, July 19, 2011

Steve Lewis Hamilton - Updated Review (Part 1)

It's sometime ago since I reviewed Steve Lewis Hamilton and the time I did it was the beginning of what felt a long treading water period. The purpose of the latest review is to provide a few answers to questions that I've been asked on the blog.

The last review was on the 27 March 2010. There is a bit of gap between then and the start of this review which begins from June 2010 and there's also a period where my records are incomplete but I am hoping this paints a picture for you looking for information.

Today I'll just focus on an update on points profit month on month from June 2010 upto June 2011 and here's the table;

As you can see there was a long lean period from June 2010 to January 2011 but things have certainly perked up from February onwards. Overall ROI for the 13 months still sits at an impressive 18% but the June to Jan was tough. I know I've missed some bets but there wasn't much else in the period.

Feb - Jun 11 we have an exceptional ROI of 62% and while results haven't been as "meteoric" as they were in 2009 - the profit has been ticking over very nicely and SLH is a key part of my portfolio - and despite the long lean period I'm still a loyal member of the service.

I'll have a look at some more detail in the next few days and some further analysis / thoughts but hope that helps in the meantime.

Thursday, July 14, 2011

Interested in Steve Lewis Hamilton?

I've had a few comments requesting performance of Steve Lewis Hamilton over the last while - I'll do an update and post a blog entry on performance - if there's anything particular you are interested in that's not mentioned in the comments let me know.

It'll be a few days before I can get to it but will definitely do so you can make your own judgement. Not been a good July for SLH so far but one winning bet will turn around the loss.

Tuesday, July 12, 2011

Stan James - an update

Well my account with Stan James has now been closed and my balance transferred to my bank account! Think they'd had enough when I won a couple more bets on my restricted level.

Here's an edited version of my chat online with them. The most interesting comment being at 10.57.26pm regarding arbitration and 35%!

10:51:14 PM [SJ] Hello, Welcome to Stan James Live Support, how may I help you
10:51:38 PM [me] Hi - it looks like my account has been cleared of fund automatically - i don't remember making a withdrawal
10:53:20 PM [SJ] your account has been closed by our Traders, we have sent a email to you regarding this
10:53:45 PM [me] I didn't get an email - when was it sent?
10:53:48 PM [SJ] Please check your junk email as well please
10:54:11 PM [SJ] it was sent a few days ago
10:54:52 PM [me] Nope no email in my junk mail either. I had a chat with someone who said you were restricting my account but that was it - why the further change!!!
10:55:14 PM [SJ] the account is closed and can not be reopened
10:55:50 PM [me] Wonderful service. I managed to make £600 from you and you close my account!! Man alive! Not much of a bookie!
10:57:26 PM [SJ] I will be honest with you, you are beating us by 35% and also our Traders believe that you are using the account for Arbitration purposes
10:58:27 PM [me] Well I was on a lucky streak - I certainly wasn't arbing - surely that can be seen by the amounts I bet - thanks for the honest though. I presume there is no way of turning this round?
10:59:08 PM [SJ] I am afraid not....sorry

So there you go!

Monday, July 11, 2011

June Update

Finally managed to finish my June analysis - here's the table and graph;

Year to date graph;
So... overall another decent month with Steve Lewis Hamilton, Equine Turnover and 4PA all delivering the majority of profit.

Made a decent profit with Equine Investments but the big problem was prices this month so hard to match the headline profit.

YTD looks good now and continues to tick up in the right direction. Lets see if it continues!

Pretty happy with my portfolio at the moment - I may add a couple of services run by SBC over the next couple of days - am mulling it over - but will be good to have another football service in there.

Friday, July 1, 2011

Stan James - A joke of a bookie

Well it's no real surprise to me after reading a lot of other peoples experience with Stan James that my account was seriously restricted today. The account was initially restricted after a couple of weeks which was unbelievable and then today a could only get £5.70 on a 7/2 shot.

After contacting the live chat function I was told that "traders have decided my account is unprofitable". This is from an account that has been only open for 10 weeks, where I have placed 129 bets, never bet more than £25 in a single bet and made a whopping.... £610.... in profit.

My goodness - I must've brought them to their knees.... £610...

From their website... has become one of the most acclaimed names within the betting industry.

Mmmm.... I don't think so.

Hopefully June review over the next couple of days.