Steve Lewis Hamilton Update - Part 2

One of the things that is always worth looking at when following a tipster is to see if there are any angles at eeking out extra profit or perhaps smoothing returns.

While tipsters maybe great at what they do (or otherwise!!) sometimes staking can be slight off. I certainly found this when reviewing Steve Lewis Hamilton last year - there appeared to be no value in betting more than 2 points on any of his bets - the 3 or 4 point bets didn't deliver extra. This meant I knocked my points back to a maximum of 2 points - something that I've followed since and it's not had any detrimental impact on overall ROI from what I can see.

Part 2 of the update looks at recent months and e/w performance vs. actual performance. Steve definitely has a lot of places and might be worth doing 1 point e/w rather than 2 points. I've looked at the last four months (April - July 23rd). While it's a relatively short period of time I think it gives the necessary indication of whether its an angle worth pursuing - haven't had time to bring my account up to date for July. I've knocked out the double bets as well (if you are wondering why the figures don't match the last table).

Here's the (small) table;

What does this tell me? Straight up following staking is better - less points, more wins, higher points and higher ROI! Simples.... Well yes but... - the ROI for the e/w performance is lower but certainly the returns are smoother and May and July have certainly proved better. Points profit isn't much different though - ROI is reduced simply because you need to bet more!

My view - sticking to staking better but I'm definitely going to keep an eye on the e/w option.

Hope that helps.

Part 3 of my review will look at whether it's better to move to level stakes vs. current stakes and I'll update table.

Excuses excuses...

Sorry i've not been on for a while. My 'real' job has been somewhat hectic over the last while and clearly that takes priority. Anyway just a quick post to say I'll pop my part 2 of the Steve Lewis Hamilton review on the blog late tonight - just working through the figures today.

Hope u all had a profitable Goodwood. Think I treaded water at best from the looks of things. Good to see 4pa having some winners though and there were a couple of very near misses again which would've landed bumper payouts!

Shaky Ground

Wasn't particularly excited about "Glorious" Goodwood in the lead up and nothing in the last 2 days has really changed my feelings about it!

4PA's dismal run of form continues with a 5 point whitewash on Tuesday and no bets today. Feels like a lack of confidence as well as although Frankel came up as a 4/5 system bet this morning PCB passed on it - seemed like decent value when you see it go off at 8/13 SP. Lets hope things will turn around - really need to as all profit in 2011 has been completed wiped out over the month of July for 4PA and I always bet small stakes on the basic system bets - would be a lot worse without them.

Does feel like 4PA is on shaky ground - while long term profit figures are excellent - and there's a lot to like about the service - it's not overly cheap and 7 months into the year we're in negative - think you should expect more from a premium service. HOWEVER one dog year doesn't make a dog life.

Not much really going my way today with Equine and Equine Turnover both drawing a blank today with a number of bets although Systematic continues to plug away quietly and efficiently.

Disappointing overall though - maybe day 3 will change things......

Looking forward to Goodwood?

After a dismal weekend for many reasons things turned around today with good winners from Systematic, Equine Investments and Equine Turnover and put a few points back on the board after 5 bad losing days.

There were two two tipster tips today with Mariners Lodge with both Equine and Systematic and Royal Blade for both Equine Turnover and Systematic - both coming in as winners! So maybe I should add a bit of extra to my stakes when there's more than one tipster tipping?

Goodwood starts tomorrow - fingers crossed it's good one - I could well miss a few bets tomorrow as I'm on the road and won't be able to get to my phone too easily but thats a fact of trying to do it part time.

Sorry I haven't had a chance to update my SLH review - time is a bit tight at the moment - hopefully will get it to this week.

Hong Kong Island

Just a quick note to say it was Northern Monkey who tipped Hong Kong Island rather than Systematic. Given a dreadful ride by all accounts.

The bubble has burst

Inevitability is striking again as the bubble of ever increasing profits has been burst over the last few days with three bad days knocking the best part of £500 off YTD profits.

It's been a tough week with bookie restrictions / rapidly falling prices and other pressures preventing me getting bets on.

Today saw a few tipsters covering the same horse - a good thing according to Mr Gekko of SBC with stats showing that multiple tipped horses perform better - well it didn't happen today with Hong Kong Island (tipped both by Equine and Systematic) and Colour Vision (both Equine and Steve Lewis Hamilton) failing to win. Very frustrating.

Hopefully Saturday will turn things round but it's a bumper day of racing and that often isn't a good thing. Really need 4PA to find form again - we haven't had a winning bet since Brown Panther on the 16th June! Thankfully I follow the basic system bets as well which has dampened the pain of the losing streak but I'm still down £317 for the month on 4PA bets.

Nervy about Goodwood coming up as well - last year was a complete disaster and with none of my big guns performing too well at the moment doesn't help the feeling!

Suppose the highs and lows are to be expected and overall the year is still looking good.

More Bookie Problems

Unfortunately following the recent good run the inevitable has happened and I've been restricted by another bookie.

This time its William Hill which is a bit of a body blow as i've used them a lot over the last 2-3 years. I suppose it was going to happen but it still astonishes me the way my account has been restricted - especially by a company like William Hill.

This is a company who have a turnover of £1.07bn and made £193.3m profit in 2010. I made about £2-3k out of them. Here's a statement from the chief exec when 2010 results were announced in February;

“Looking forward, while we recognise that the economic environment will continue to be challenging in 2011 for all consumers, as is reflected in market expectations, we are confident our customer-focused, multi-channel approach, extensive product offering and our exploitation of technological advances ensure we are well-placed,” said the company.

Maybe he should have added - and we will begin only deal with losing punters. Perhaps the shares are worth buying.... Pathetic.

More seriously though it causes me an issue - and one that I am trying to resolve to continue getting the best odds available.

So how do I resolve?

There are clearly ways of opening additional accounts with bookies that have closed or restricted my account. Some of these have been documented through the likes of SBC.

In the meantime I've opened further accounts with additional bookies which will spread my bets a bit more.

Additionally I've decided to use Betfair more where it's sensible to do so - i.e. if price is within a set parameter of recommended by the tipster then I'll use Betfair.

It may mean that I will lose BOG benefit with some tips and not maximise profits but if I'm within about 5-10% of the recommended price it's probably ok in the interests of prolonging bookie accounts.

Clearly the use of Betfair is impossible for tipsters like Equine Investments where the price on disappears in seconds (if it is there at all). This problem is compounded by the fact that betting on Equine tips with bookies is more than likely to get your account restricted.

Anyway will see how this progresses in the short term while I consider the other options.

Far from ideal.