Sunday, July 31, 2011

Steve Lewis Hamilton Update - Part 2

One of the things that is always worth looking at when following a tipster is to see if there are any angles at eeking out extra profit or perhaps smoothing returns.

While tipsters maybe great at what they do (or otherwise!!) sometimes staking can be slight off. I certainly found this when reviewing Steve Lewis Hamilton last year - there appeared to be no value in betting more than 2 points on any of his bets - the 3 or 4 point bets didn't deliver extra. This meant I knocked my points back to a maximum of 2 points - something that I've followed since and it's not had any detrimental impact on overall ROI from what I can see.

Part 2 of the update looks at recent months and e/w performance vs. actual performance. Steve definitely has a lot of places and might be worth doing 1 point e/w rather than 2 points. I've looked at the last four months (April - July 23rd). While it's a relatively short period of time I think it gives the necessary indication of whether its an angle worth pursuing - haven't had time to bring my account up to date for July. I've knocked out the double bets as well (if you are wondering why the figures don't match the last table).

Here's the (small) table;

What does this tell me? Straight up following staking is better - less points, more wins, higher points and higher ROI! Simples.... Well yes but... - the ROI for the e/w performance is lower but certainly the returns are smoother and May and July have certainly proved better. Points profit isn't much different though - ROI is reduced simply because you need to bet more!

My view - sticking to staking better but I'm definitely going to keep an eye on the e/w option.

Hope that helps.

Part 3 of my review will look at whether it's better to move to level stakes vs. current stakes and I'll update table.


Anonymous said...

Would I be correct in thinking that SLH made a profit of 8 points during July and the profit from 1st January - 31st July is 70 points? A bad start to August but hopefully things will improve next week. He states on his website that he tries to make a profit of 10 points from each bet but today's selection was a 1-point bet at 3/1. I don't understand his staking policy.

Anonymous said...

We need your July figures, please.

Anonymous said...

SLH = 8 points profit in July and 70 points profit January to July? Bad start to August.

mrh-beats said...

Hi all. Will calculate them and get them posted tomorrow night. Will comment on your other points tomorrow as well.