Monday, April 25, 2011

Getting the right price

Have had time this morning to do a quick review of the importance of getting prices and how that is affecting my results with Systematic Betting in particular - still irks me that I made a 5 point loss in March while the headline rate was a 10 point gain and the difference simply is because of prices.

Unfortunately despite some improvements in my betting placement it looks like I haven't done that well as my profit so far for Systematic Betting in April is 0.8 points where as headline rate is 11.5 points. I'm aiming to get about 80% of the headline rate which for me is about the best I can manage with bookie restrictions / bet placement timing. I'm not achieving that at the moment so it's quite frustrating.

Suspect that some of the difference could be because of rule 4's but I can't see any in the bets i've missed out so will wait until the end of the month and see how I compare to the official stats.

Analysing the data it's amazing how few bets and missed prices can make a difference;

24 April - tipped at 7/1 - I only got 4/1 - really not sure how!!
20 April - tipped at 6/1 - I managed 9/2.
19 April -tipped at 7/1 - I got 5/1
2 April - tipped at 10/1 - I got 7/1

These are the four that stand out where changes in the odds makes all the difference!!

Systematic Betting is a brilliant service and I'm not having a go as the prices quoted are always available.

I've just missed those prices due to timing issues or can't get them due to account restrictions. Certainly have noticed a need to be much quicker with prices with Systematic over recent weeks - don't know whether it's coincidence, members are putting more money on or bookies are getting wise! It just goes to show that even with the top notch services you need to put the work in - I think we all know there's no easy money in this game.

The desire to get best prices has to be tempered by the need to keep your accounts with as many bookmakers as possible open. I've been restricted by a couple of bookies in my time but appear to have been relatively fortunate with others so far (touch wood - and I feel I'm treading a thin line with a couple of bookies also). More details on bookies at the bottom of this post.

So what can I do to make sure I get better prices and get a return closer to the headline rates while maintaining bookie accounts for as long as possible (this is important for services such as Equine Investments and Equine Turnover as well and Steve Lewis Hamilton, 4PA all who shift prices relatively quickly).

Think I need to ensure that I do the following;

* Start getting better at using accounts I very rarely use - e.g. Coral / Totesport / Boylesports as their mobile offering has been rubbish - but all now in better shape in that front.
* Open accounts with 5-6 other bookies that have online offerings that I don't currently use - I've just signed up to for example who occassionally offer a better price.
* Cap individual bets with a £25 limit per bookie. This is low but I know anything much more than that will restrict
* I may not take bookie with best price if I've hammered that account a lot or placed more than 3/4 bets a day with that bookie.
* Use betfair as a last resort where it's viable - i.e. price is better (remember commission) than the majority of bookies

Hopefully by doing these things I can keep bookie accounts open longer and instead of placing 7 or 8 bets a day with say, I am placing only 4-5 a week.

Will keep an eye on things and see how they progress.

Bad Bookies!
As I mentioned I've been restricted on a couple of accounts - thought i'd share the detail with you; - no surprise I was restricted by them having read others experiences. Awful from the start. I originally signed up with a £200 sign up bonus. Despite meeting all the criteria they refused to pay it and when I queried as to why they said they didn't have to give me a reason. Within a very short space of time I was restricted to about £2 a bet. - awful. They restricted me after a winning spree with Equine Investments in July 2009 and when I queried the restrictions they quite boldly stated that they were a business and needed to make a profit so didn't want my bets. Read into that "we only want to deal with losing punters". What a joke.

I have some form of restrictions on Bluesq - they limit my bets to approx £50 (which isn't a problem now) and aren't so keen on the big e/w punts. Paddypower aren't so keen on big e/w bets and rather strangely severely restricted my 4PA bet last week but seem to be back to normal. Boylesports don't let me bet on Golf or Darts after short dalliances with golf tipsters and On the Oche. My darts bets were restricted within a month of starting to place.

Seem to be going ok with the others - will see how that progresses through the summer.

Anyway hope that gives you a bit of an insight as to what I'm thinking at the moment

No comments: