Quite spectacular - so much so I double checked my figures to make sure the graph was actually right but the numbers paint a picture on their own;
August as a month down over £1500 so far. Last week took £1,040 off the scores.
So where has it gone wrong this month? Simple really - all tipsters bar Equine Turnover and Northern Monkey have performed abysmally. Diversification is all well and good but doesn't work when pretty everyone is doing badly;
Systematic Betting - the drop made worse by me moving to £20 a point of course. But down 46 points since 1 August on the prices I have managed to get on at. Not overly worried about this as things can turn round quickly but painful nonetheless.
Steve Lewis Hamilton - no winners this month so far and down 6.5 points. Typical SLH summer performance unfortunately.
Equine (Main) - minus 5 points. Turnover service is outperforming the main account this year on the stakes I follow which in itself is interesting.
Football Elite - poor start to the season with 4 losers out of 5 bets so far.
4PA - return to form seemed short lived and winnings earlier this month have turned into a 3 point loss.
It's a short term blip probably and this is a long term game but it's really disappointing to give back so much over such a short period.
I'd be interested to get any thoughts on why people think tipsters are performing so badly in August??
I've got a few posts to do in answer to peoples comments including info about bet banks / why i started etc so will try to get to answer some of these this week.
So - lets get back on the horse and earn some cash this week!!
8 comments:
I subscribed to Football Elite last year but did not renew. Backing relatively short priced teams at home just doesn't seem to be the way to make profits... as their results over the last year confirm. "The Banker"
Hi there - Certainly need a high strike rate to make it pay so we'll see how it goes this season for me.
You say that SLH is 6.5 points down this month. That is totally wrong. He lost 4 points last Saturday alone and 9 points in total last week. He has not had a winner since the end of July and is at least 15 points down for August. His website needs updating because, as usual, Rob Lewis Hamilton has massaged the results on the website to imply Steve has made a massive profit this summer. In reality, June was good, July was moderate and August has been terrible. If he does not produce the goods soon I will leave the Private Service when my subscription expires at the end of September. I am bleeding money and cannot afford the hefty subscription costs plus the additional telephone costs. With the exception of unlucky Duncan on Saturday, the selections last week were dire, absolutely dire. He harps on about finding value and only advising bets when they are "strong enough for the account" but the reality is that many of his account bets are not always prudent: why back a horse to win even though another horse in the race is better just because the odds on the selected horse are considered too long? Why not back the horse in the race that you think is going to win? I would prefer to be backing regular winners at 2/1 and 3/1 rather than speculating on horses who turn out to be donkeys but whose price is considered too long by Steve. I want to back horses with a winning chance based on ability not just selections based on odds and value. There has certainly been no value this month. Steve needs to turn things round and get the profits rolling again.ly wrong. He lost 4 points last Saturday alone and 9 points in total last week. He has not had a winner since the end of July and is at least 15 points down for August. His website needs updating because, as usual, Rob Lewis Hamilton has massaged the results on the website to imply Steve has made a massive profit this summer. In reality, June was good, July was moderate and August has been terrible. If he does not produce the goods soon I will leave the Private Service when my subscription expires at the end of September. I am bleeding money and cannot afford the hefty subscription costs plus the additional telephone costs. With the exception of unlucky Duncan on Saturday, the selections last week were dire, absolutely dire. He harps on about finding value and only advising bets when they are "strong enough for the account" but the reality is that many of his account bets are not always prudent: why back a horse to win even though another horse in the race is better just because the odds on the selected horse are considered too long? Why not back the horse in the race that you think is going to win? I would prefer to be backing regular winners at 2/1 and 3/1 rather than speculating on horses who turn out to be donkeys but whose price is considered too long by Steve. I want to back horses with a winning chance based on ability not just selections based on odds and value. There has certainly been no value this month. Steve needs to turn things round and get the profits rolling again.
David - thanks for your post - you're absolutely right - I have down 13 points (I'd divided my figure by £50 and not £25). I will update the post.
I'm certainly not going to defend SLH publicity and how the info is presented on his website or how transparent the service is as it definitely could be better.
I think many tipsters aim to find value in the betting market as they say it's often the only way to make profit in the long run and this does make sense.
Sorry - should've added - it's been an awful month for SLH but I hope long term profits will continue - evidence does suggest this to be the case.
I want to know 4PA all day give tips or only saturday?
Bad month for my...I will stop subscribe with SLH,Horse Betting Analist and Project 85.Stop work with this this services.I not have more free money and nerves...I will give yet 1 month chance on Will Lattimore.Other my services work good.Market Examiner have bad month,but I still have believe on Sam.
I don't agree with the question of finding value in the betting market: I can see that backing a horse to win at 5/1 whose price you think should be much shorter is fine on paper but the animal still has to win. I often get the impression that tipsters, Steve Lewis for example, will back a horse - usually the second favourite - because they think its odds are too long. However, this doesn't mean the favourite is going to lose. I'd prefer to place a bet on a horse that a tipster thinks is going to win rather than a horse that the tipster thinks is overpriced. There's no point in backing a horse at big odds because the tipster thinks it is overpriced while at the same time there are better horses in the race who have a better winning chance.
Hi Elist - 4PA generally only tip on a Saturday but also every day for the big meets (e.g. Gold Cup, Aintree, Goodwood, Royal Ascot). Drop them a note for details. A good service, going through a very poor run at the moment but maybe thats the time to join!!
Hi Anon - I think tipsters can do it both ways - some look for value, some look for winners. I'm not very good at explaining it but it's all to do with relative chance of winning so if you bet, say 10 5/1 shots that you believe should all have been 4/1 then statistically you're going to win over the long term as you're getting value. So i think does that mean that a 5/1 shot has a 20% chance of winning whereas as a 4/1 shot has a 25% chance of winning so the value is in the 5%.
Sure someone else can explain it better than me.
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