Monday, November 21, 2011

Master At Work

I was away for the weekend hence the lack of blog action. Before i respond to comments, complete my weekly update etc I wanted to drop a note in about Northern Monkey. What a service! Struggling to find a service that stakes right, reads races very well and when things go right - spot on! And all for less than £17 a month. Others please take note! Well done Wayne.

Here's the notes for Saturday;

This weekend has been one punters and racing enthusiasts up and down the country have been looking forward to greatly over the past few days - myself included. However, whereas the majority have been poring over the Long Run vs Diamond Harry vs Kauto Star clash in the Betfair Chase, part of a terrific weekend of jumps racing from Ascot and Haydock, I've been struggling to concentrate on anything but the 3 o'clock at Lingfield after seeing the final declarations for this 0-85 handicap on Thursday!
Quite simply, this race has the potential to be run at an absolute hellish gallop and I think there is a very strong angle in looking for a horse that will be delivered late, from off the pace. The fact the race takes place at Lingfield makes the race even more intriguing too because, of the four AW tracks in Britain, you would have to say that it is Lingfield that is most suited to hold up horses, with many runners catapulting themself into late contention after turning the home bend. If we adopt the angle that closers are the ones to be on, LENNY BEE and SUGAR BEET look the pair to focus on.
Lenny Bee has outstanding claims and has a favourites chance. I priced him up at 11/4 before Time Medicean and Bertoliver were withdrawn yesterday and I think there is still a small value margin in his present price. He lost his way when trained by A G Foster but is now trained by the capable Debbie Sanderson and could start to make up for last time as he was a useful handicapper two years ago for David Brown. With an excellent mark in this sphere - he was beaten by a quarter of a length off 10lb higher twelve months ago - I expect him to go very well. He is the most likely winner by some margin.
However, I have decided against backing him as the main bet, purely for reasons of value. I think the better value in the race is with Sugar Beet. Although Ron Harris' charge is a little bit of a quirky customer and undoubtedly deserves to be a bigger price than Lenny Bee, she looks overpriced as, if things drop right, she too has outstanding claims this afternoon, yet can be backed at four times the price (Sporting Bet and Sky offer 10/1 if anyone has an active account with them).
Sugar Beet is a 6f winner at this track but won't mind this 5f trip today, indeed, her subsequent progression has come since stepping back to the minimum trip, over which she won very nicely at Goodwood on her penultimate start. The handicapper reacted with a 7lb rise which demands further improvement from her but, at the age of three, there is good reason to beleive her improvement hasn't stopped and she will be slightly helped by a 1lb drop for her last run at Pontefract, when bumped leaving the stalls and racing out the back of the field in a race not run to suit (also worth acknowledging Lenny Bee finished ahead of her).
There is every chance that Sugar Beet could get scrubbed along out the back of the field and never land a telling blow and Lenny Bee, who I expect to be held-up in mid-division, could win this cosily. However, I am going to stick to my principals and side with Sugar Beet as I think the potential margin for value in her price is considerably greater than that if we were to back Lenny Bee. Rather than going in on Sugar Beet with a big each-way bet, however, I am advising Backing Lenny Bee as a saver as his odds of 5/2 are slightly bigger than the 2/1 from a Sugar Beet place (in a race paying each-way at a quarter of the odds. There are also only 8 runners left in the race and if another horse were to withdraw we'd only get paid out each way on two places) and I also want to have an egg in two baskets, rather than one, in the event of traffic trouble (which is quite possible given the way the race may unfold).

Advised bet: Lenny Bee 5/2 Paddypower, 0.75 pt win
Sugar Beet 9/1 Ladbrokes, 1.5 pt win

And the result taken from Sporting Life:

12Sugar Beet9-4L MorrisR Harris38/1
in touch, ridden and headway entering final furlong, driven to lead final 75 yards opened 13/2 touched 8/1
29nkLenny Bee9-3 tJ P Fahy (3)Mrs D Sanderson511/4
in rear, ridden and headway approaching final furlong, ran on, not reached winner opened 3/1 touched 3/1 £825-£300

Enough said!

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