Wednesday, September 28, 2011

What a difference a day makes - part 2

Thanks for all the comments from last nights post - good to generate a bit of debate. Certainly food for thought and what to do on Saturday!

Profitable today thanks in the main to Northern Monkey who got us a 12/1 winner and a 9/1 place - perfect timing for my new staking! Systematic ticked up another notch today with a small profit but a loser from Equine Turnover.

As I mentioned I thought I'd look at Systematic Betting daily and here are 2011 figures;

Monday +£1,439
Tuesday +£1,156
Wednesday +£621
Thursday -£1,349
Friday +£452
Saturday +£22
Sunday -£532

So slightly different profile to the portfolio and the early part of the week is much more profitable than the latter half. Thursday is a shocker, and Sunday is poor, whereas there is a scrape of a profit on Saturday. (quick addition - my numbers for systematic aren't reconciling but they are only a few quid out so doesn't impact the overall point)

Interesting figures. Sunday racing quality is generally poor so our argument that competitive racing makes it difficult doesn't stack up with that.

Anyway more food for thought. Comments / thoughts welcome.

Couple of additional points tonight;

* I've signed up to the Piecost Private Service - this is the type of service I want to follow going forward - based on systems rather than opinion. This statement may seem at odds with me signing up for another 3 months with Northern Monkey but Waynes service is profitable so why give it up? Additionally good "opinion" services - SLH, Equine Turnover are worth keeping going while I shift from other services to ratings / system services as well as look at other potential angles (i.e. trading / my own systems).

* I'm about to head off on holiday for 10 days, which will involve a bit of a tour round the UK visiting friends and family. The iphone and laptop are coming with me so plan to be betting but the blog posting may be slightly more erratic.

Good luck!


Anonymous said...

You could always reduce stakes on a thur/sat with the theory that if it may turn round if it does you will be still following services.I have done ok last month slh has had a 14 pt profit since 25th aug/n.monkey had a gd sat cpl weeks ago and mathmatician 16/1sat so there is winners there,I personally don't play on the big sat handicap(feel that alot of services feel they need to tip in the race when alot of it comes down to on the day luck,it would be interesting how many pts were lost due to for thurs that one is strange as the racing is probably on a par with wed/poss fri what do you think?

TPI said...

Hi there.

Really enjoying the blog. I don't mind admitting it's a lot more relaxing reading someone else's than writing your own! This day of the week performance breakdown is fascinating stuff too.

Just a couple of thoughts...

1. I suspect (but have no evidence to back the theory up) that the profitability or otherwise of Saturday betting is dependant on the methods of the individual tipster. Paul of PJA Racing did this study with his own service recently and found Saturday's to be by far his most profitable day of the week, Sundays by far the least profitable. The more competitive the racing, the better he does.

2. My problem with Saturdays has been that using the number of services that I do, I often have five or six horses in the same, ultra-competitve race, ie. the 25+ runner Heritage Handicap of the day. Of course, due to the nature of the race, it is a frequent occurence that despite the coverage I have in terms of number of horses in the race I have backed, I still gain no return from a large outlay. I wonder if this has an impact on overall Saturday performance?

3. Bearing the above point in mind, I feel that perhaps more emphasis should be placed on constructing a portfolio that minimises overlap (I'm talking personally here - you may well have already factored this in properly).

Anyway, enough waffle from me. Have a great holiday and best of luck with the punting moving forward.


Anonymous said...

Hi, i wouldnt take any notice of which days are in profit for the systematic service, i have bin with the service for some time myself and remember thinking that i never seem to win on a monday, looking at your figs points to monday being one of the best days now. j

Anonymous said...

Are the Equine Investment bets win-only or do they ever advise each-way bets? I am thinking that win-only betting is more profitable in the long-term. Can you outline the Equine staking policy, please.

Anonymous said...

If you were to bet all SLH bets this year at £100 win-only, you would have made £5,125 profit with a Return on Investment of 37.96%. Are you able to tell me what your ROI is with SLH this year for your staking plan? I am beginning to think that win-only betting is the way forward. The main bets which have pumped up SLH's profit account this year are KERKABELLEC winning at 20/1 in March and PRAXITELES winning at 14/1 in May. Betting £50 each-way (£100 stake) on the pair would have made £1,200 and £875 profit respectively whereas betting £100 win-only would have generated £2,000 and £1,400 profit respectively for the same outlay. Is it time for another analysis of your figures for level stakes WIN-ONLY betting with SLH? Would be interesting to see your figures.

mrh-beats said...

Anon (1) - think it's a difficult decision and i'm not sure 9 months of data is enough - i talk about Thursday here rather than Saturday it does feel Saturdays have been poor for longer than just this year - I'm sure there was one Saturday last year I had 31 tips and only 1 won! Thursday is a real anomaly and hard to fathom - i'd always thought the racing got better as the week went on! You always do worry if you don't follow recommended tips that you are going to miss out on the 33/1 shout romping home! Things actually feel ok at the moment - just not making enough progress. You are right about the big races - I'm sure I had about 9 horses in the grand national through tips - the big cavalry charges during the summer are my least favourite.

Do you maybe think Thurs is poor as it could be the big start day of weekend meetings and no one is sure of stalls / ground etc?

Rowan - thanks for your kind comments! You make some interesting points and gets me thinking - re dependant on individual tipster - I agree - i think the performance depends on your portfolio and as you mention maybe part of my perfect portfolio analysis should include performance on individual days of the week?? May sound daft but there's some tipsters who can't seem to cut it on certain days. So you've certainly given me food for thought there.

Your 2nd point is also true and I've mentioned above - how can you make a profit when you have 5 horses in a race? Impossible. Unfortunately I don't have enough data to see if this contributes to poorer results - maybe someone has somewhere?

Thanks again - chose the right time to be off and stay in the UK!

J - tempted to agree with you there - i did read on Mr Gekkos blog that he did say that Sunday used to be good for Systematic and its only recently turned down. This goes back to Rowans point as well - it's about getting the balance of your portfolio right rather than focus on individual tipsters.

Anon (2) - Equine do tip e/w but generally the bet is more likely to be £150 win / £50 place or something similar so the place will cover the win rather than make a profit out of the place - although depending on the odds there is profit there. Shorter odds horses of course are usually win only.

Anon (3)- thanks for the info re SLH - probably is worth doing although e/w bets are occasional on SLH - the two horses you mention were 1 pt win bets rather than e/w bets and if I'd played level stakes then rather than 1 or 2 points it certainly would've boosted my profits! Will have a look when i get a chance to see if there is much difference - won't get the opportunity for a couple of weeks though.