Tuesday, September 27, 2011

What a difference a day makes

Not much progress today - well none at all really - as my staking change on Northern Monkey and Steve Lewis Hamilton has yet to work in my favour.

Following my post the other day on how Saturdays weren't really working out that well on the betting front I thought I'd add up each day and see where it ended up - and here are the results;

Monday +£818
Tuesday +£1,463
Wednesday +£666
Thursday -£1,228
Friday +£1,599
Saturday -£1,159
Sunday +£270

So - what does this tell me? Take Thursday and Saturdays off? Who knows! I have seen and heard as well as spoken to people who always say you should never bet on a Saturday as it's too tough to call. God knows what the problem is on Thursday though although it looks like Systematic Betting contributes to the majority of the loss on this day for some bizarre reason.

I'll look at Systematic and all individual services over each day out of interest more than anything. Not sure we can draw any conclusions. Thoughts welcome.


Anonymous said...

Waiting to use systematic is it profitable for you?
Been told there is a w.list,what do you feel about n.monkey in last ten days

Anonymous said...

hi mate , great reading as always .

it doesnt suprise me that most tipsters underperform with their saturday bets . the tipsters i know (all the ones you use) use fairly narrow paramaters when assessing a horses chance of winning . their approach allows them to grind out 30-40% roi from the less competitive stuff and then give a bit back when they reach their level of incompetence .
i would be interested to learn from you if systematic has the same "problem" . i would have thought not but iawait your response .

Lay Away said...

Saturdays have always been my worst performing days by a long shot, I think it is always competitive and the shear volume of events makes it a bit of a punters nightmare.

Would appreciate a link exchange



Anonymous said...

Congrats on a super little blog.
A really interesting post last night; I have long had this nagging doubt about the profitability of gambling on Saturdays, so I did a quick calculation of my betting year to date, by day. The results were:
Sat -£11477
Sun £313
Mon £232
Tues £1037
Wed £7467
Thurs -£11881
Fri £2848

My portfolio is similar to yours so you will know the main culprits. When I get time I will break it down to individual tipsters over the last 2 years to see if there is a trend to learn from, but for now I will take your comments about Thurs and Sat on board and bet with caution until coming up with something more finite.

mrh-beats said...

Anon (1) - Yes systematic is profitable - a large number of bets though and difficult sometimes to get the prices due to bookie restrictions but top quality service overall. Yeah as far as I understand I got in just in time and the waiting list is pretty lengthy! Been a tough old time for Northern Monkey recently but not surprising after a spate of good wins. Looks like turned things round today as well!

Anon (2) - thanks for your comment - interesting point. Suspect you are right - but the question is - is it as straightforward as just give up on Saturdays? Will do Systematic tonight.

Hi Neil - think you are right - so much to chose from - where do you start?? Will add you to the blog if you can do the same!

Hi AV - thanks for posting your own stats. Interesting that you have the same problem on Thursday as well as Saturday though. Be good to see your further info when you get a chance. As I say is it as straightforward as just giving up on these days? Not so sure!

Anonymous said...

Are those figures correct? That guy is showing a loss of 11,461 GBP this year. Surely he cannot be following the same tipsters as you.

John said...

You state that you are increasing your stakes with SLH to 50 GBP level stakes (with either 50 GBP win or 25 GBP each-way). I think this is the right thing to do and I agree with you, especially after looking at your statistical analysis. However, remember to increase your betting bank accordingly to reflect this change. You were betting 25 GBP per point before so had a betting bank of 1,250 GBP (25 GBP x 50) but you now need a betting bank of 2,500 GBP (50 GBP x 50) to reflect your increase in stakes, which have effectively doubled: for example, you will now be betting 50 GBP on what were previously 1 point win bets of 25 GBP. I hope this makes sense. Let's hope SLH bags us some winners soon although your change in stakes often seems to have a negative effect on racing results!

Anonymous said...

Mate, you follow too many services to make a profit. I think you should stick with Equine, SLH, Northern Monkey and Systematic only. I'd ditch everything else. I don't even think Football Elite is worth it at the small stakes you play. Furthermore, Matt has not been in very good form for months and the ROI is very low indeed for 2011.

Anonymous said...

In reply to Anon 12.03, yes sadly that is true. After a £60K gain last year, I am approx £11K down this year. This is almost exclusively down to 4PA and Football Elite underperforming, whilst Systematic has had a quiet 12 months compared to last. Also, I took up The Market Examiner at the wrong time.

Of course one has to look at the big picture and I still see around £50K up for the last 2 years..


mrh-beats said...

Anon 12.03 - yes looks like they are - you can see AV has responded to your comment

John - thanks for the info - and a very good point that I hadn't actually considered - much appreciated. Will re-adjust. Fingers crossed my staking adjustment jinx will be broken - seemed to maybe be with Northern Monkey!! Yes hopefully the ramp up of the NH season will increase bet rate and winners!

Anon 12.15 - thanks for your comment - definitely trying to reduce services - sounds odd considering i have just signed up to piecost but am seeing some subs out for others where i won't renew. Think Matt had a bad season last season - am hoping this season picks up. I do take your comment about staking but am feel too cautious on this one to up it. Double edged sword really. Appreciate your thoughts!

AV - thanks for updating - yes its been a torrid time for all the services mentioned and systematic has definitely been slower this year and I've found it harder to get prices. Glad the longer term profit is there for you - good news is good to hear!