Final Ramble of the year

Once again time is against me in the lead up to Christmas but I did manage to get everything back up to date on my train journeys today. Pity my team couldn't produce the goods - our good start to the season is beginning to seem like a distant memory.

Looking at things at a very high level December has been an excellent month. The 2nd best of the year so far and if things continue over the final week of the year we could beat May's figure of £1,981. Clearly I don't want to tempt fate but it's been great so far, however I am sure I'm due a correction at some point soon.

Star performer again is Systematic Betting who have had a spectacular month with 54 points profit to date. Closely following behind is Northern Monkey with another tremendous profit. Also good to see Piecost turning things around. The Football Analyst looks like a good thing now as well - still delivering a profit during a tough time for football betting.

My only real concern lies with 3 services Mr Gekko Bets who have fallen back again after showing signs of recovery, The Market Examiner who are finding winners but just not enough to eek any profit out the service and I'm wavering with the service and finally Equine Investments Main Account which has started the all weather season abysmally with 8 losing bets in a row. When you see services like Northern Monkey delivering consistent profit month on month for next to nothing subscription you expect more when paying well over £1k subs. Luckily Equine Turnover is still producing (just).

Anyway the bottom line December to date I'm £1,515 up which takes my ytd gross profit over the £5k mark. If you asked me in the middle of October whether I thought I'd get to that position I would have laughed my head off.

This is more than likely going to be my last post until the New Year. I'm away for most of the break so won't have the opportunity to keep posting. Sorry things have been sporadic over the last month - it really has been hectic - I do intend to keep going in 2012 and will post as regularly as I can.

I'd like to take this opportunity to thank everyone who has commented on the site and also to you who just view - its great to know people read what am writing and I do hope it gives you an insight as to how hard it all is but also helps you with your own plans. I find it very therapeutic and it helps me focus on the task at hand

Anyway enough prattling - have a great Christmas and here's to a prosperous 2012.

Cheers!

Profitable Weekend

Decent weekend saw the recent slump turn around. Haven't totted up my figures yet but feels like I broke even this week. Hoping to bring everything up to date this week - travelling to the Newcastle game on Wednesday so have some train time to fill. Really need to set some plans out for next year as well.

Sorry Thursday

Thursday continues to be a poor day - if not the poorest day of the week - with another big loss today - with Steve Lewis Hamilton, Systematic Betting and Equine Investments all performing poorly.

The dismal day was brightened as Northern Monkey and Piecost continue to perform well.

1/2 a length was the difference today though with Rebeccas Choice at 8/1 just behind the winner for SLH and then Sunglasses / Petit Ecuyer at 1.10 messing it up for us on Systematic by banging in to each other. The margins between great success and poor returns remain tight! A slight change in fortune could've netted upwards of £1,000 today...

Dust ourselves down and tomorrow is another day!!

Forex, Smashing Prices and Rant Potential

No not Castlemaine XXXX - the piss poor australian lager of my youth - which is apparently still going strong in Oz!

But Forex!

I constantly get bombarded with Forex offers and don't pay much heed to many of them but as the year draws to a close I'm looking to spread my wings a bit and diversify away from betting on football and horse racing.

Sorting the wheat from the chaff looks nigh on impossible in terms of systems / trading techniques etc. If anyone has any ideas let me know.

I know I should really be updating my stats etc but I'm writing this quickly between ordering Christmas presents / preparing for meetings / making eggnog etc.... Full service will be resumed shortly.

Anyway on the betting front - today ended up being a good day with Eastward Ho delivering for Systematic Betting at 6/1 for me (13/2 tipped). I mention the prices as Mark, quite rightly grumped about someone smashing into the price on Betfair and getting 10/3 just after the tip was released - bit daft really when the SP was 5/1, BFSP 6/1. I'm not sure why anyone does that - the price on tips for later races always seems to dip sharply soon after the tip comes out and then bounces back relatively rapidly. Anyway each to their own.

Equine hasn't started the new season very well unfortunately and I was slightly concerned when I heard about a new service offered which is producing a number of winners in a short space of time. Will need to investigate before commenting further... but if that is the case then it really does make me wonder what I'm paying substantial subs for...

AWOL

Sorry I've gone a bit AWOL recently - was at a wedding over the weekend and all Christmas related activities are beginning to catch up with me so am trying to get back up to date.

Excellent start to the month though - highlight being Red Tanber winning yesterday for both Systematic Betting and Steve Lewis Hamilton. Was hoping Venetian Lad would follow that today but can't win them all!!

Will aim to bring everything bang up to date by the end of the week!

November Review - Part 1

The month didn’t end particularly well with a couple of losing days but no massive damage done and a decent month in the end with £641 gross profit posted. Net profit therefore was £205 which gives me £6.83 a day – well below my “modest” target of £20 per day. Subscription fees continue to punish the profit at my stake level and clearly there are things I can do to change that.

Obviously luck plays its part and I suppose it evens out in the end but missing 3 winning bets one Saturday cost me £200+ profit on the month. C’est la vie.

So November my 6^th winning month of the year so far and total profit for the year stands at £3,545 which on paper looks and sounds lovely, the reality being that unless December proves to be a stormer I will finish the year in a net negative position. 2009 and thousands of pound profit seems like a long time ago.

Anyway here’s the number for each service;

Steve Lewis Hamilton: -£224 (-4.5pts). Admittedly 1 winning bet missed which would have made a difference but still a negative for Steve with another disappointing month to post. Think the fact that we’re into the NH season proper now makes the result much more frustrating. A lack of bets doesn’t help matters but I think its worth keeping the faith. One winning bet would’ve turned things into profit. My level staking approach paid dividends with 1pt bet Prophete De Guye delivering and 3pt Tempest River flopping. I’ve just re-subscribed to SLH until 1 April 2012 so we shall see how the rest of the season goes.

Equine Investments / Equine Turnover. Small losses on both these services as they kicked off the AW season proper on Saturday 26^th. Hopefully both can turn a substantial profit throughout the winter. I need Equine Investments to do tremendously well to break even. I’ve mentioned before my staking level with the main service is not sustainable with subs how they are, this joined with an impossible task of getting bets on at recommended prices make the service unsustainable for a punter like myself. A great service with handsome profit over the long run so cannot be criticised too much but not one I will continue with at renewal point – I just can’t make it pay. Equine Turnover has performed magnificently this year and I do plan to keep going with that one but it’d be fair to say pressure on prices appears to mount as each passing tip delivers.

Northern Monkey: +£190 (+19pts). Another very good month for Wayne at Northern Monkey. I had to laugh at his end of season review where he mentioned he wasn’t very happy with annual performance. Give yourself a break man! Happy as larry, could not be happier… Highlight of the month has to be Sugar Beet. It’ll be quieter over the next few months but tipping at its best for very low cost.

Football Elite: -£101 (-4pts). Disappointing month for Football Elite. I’d say this was a service that was on my watch list. Matt sent an interesting email at the end of the month which overall I couldn’t disagree with in terms of volume of bets and long term profit. I think the question is – how long do I want to wait before I return a decent profit? Again my level of staking is the issue here – not so much relative to the cost of the service – which is a very reasonable £15 a month – but in terms of volume of bets and odds achieved. It probably feels like you should be betting £100+ on each tip to feel the benefit of the service. However whatever the level of tipping over the last two years including subs I’ve made a loss and it does reach the point that you have to draw a line and move on – can I wait another year or two to turn a profit. I don’t think the nature of who I am will allow me to do that!

4PA: +£14 (+0.7pts). A poor month for 4PA with a flourish of winners in the middle helping us scrape over the line in the black. I’ve flipped my betting on this service with and am following the basic system bets over the account bets. Any account bet that isn’t a basic system bet I’m covering to minimum stakes. Clear evidence from the stats to show that this is the right thing to do and good profit can be made from simply following the basic system at £20 a point. As you will know I’ve re-subscribed for three months to see how things go and to allow me to try and do the basic thing myself. Well last weekend it never happened as I had no time and this weekend will be the same as I’m away for a wedding. So there is value in paying £400 a year for a service that can deliver +£2.5k a year on profit. Now questions are – could some one provide the tips at less than £400 a year and if they did would that be ok to do considering it’s a SBC tool. Answers on a postcard. PS – if anyone from SBC is reading this – I’m not going to do it so don’t have a go!

Weekly Update

Sorry there's not been much activity over the weekend - busy as always and trying to squeeze everything is hard work! Anyway here's the update for last week (Monday 21st - Sunday 27th).

Overall... A decent week with a healthy profit made of £457. Five days in positive territory and no major damage done on losing days. Excellent performance from Systematic Betting really driving the profit forward. Takes the yearly profit up to £3,635 and November to date up to £746. With a few days left should be a profitable month after a difficult period. Football services all had a nightmare and Steve Lewis Hamilton had a dreadful week.

A good week for... Systematic Betting stormed back to form with an awesome week which was concluded with Carruthers getting home on Saturday at 20/1 recommended price (I managed to secure 18/1 with an SP of 10/1). Total profit for the week for the service was a stunning £1,038 (just under 52 points) and after what has felt like an eternity of treading water we're over where we were at the previous peaks in July and at the beginning of October. Long may it continue!

A bad week for... The overall profit of £457 vs. Systematic Betting profit of £1,038 shows how poorly other services performed this week and in particular Steve Lewis Hamilton had a stinker with a whitewash of a week and £250 down. 8 losing bets for Steve in a row now and the NH season I had so been looking forward to has been not been forthcoming. While Steve acknowledges the poor run, we've been here before and 1 or 2 decent priced winners will turn things around. So I won't lose hope yet and will re-subscribe. The "mentions" are doing well so is a good way to mitigate main account losses - appreciate that's not the point but may be worth following.

Any other news.... Slightly worrying run of form from Football Elite with 4 losing bets out of 5 on Saturday puts us in negative territory again for the season. I have this service on my "watch list" now along with Piecost and The Market Examiner - three services on my portfolio that are hardly setting the world alight. May be forced into making some decisions at year end if there are no signs of improvement. Not much else to report - Equine is back up and running for the main all weather season but no main bets yet and two losers from Turnover on Saturday - here's hoping for a good winter of profit!

Another good day

Systematic Betting finally on a bit of a role with 6 days profit in a row. Longest run of profit since beginning of May. Market Examiner and Northern Monkey also contributed to todays profit and another very good day despite a poor day from Piecost and two losers from Steve Lewis Hamilton. Disappointing start to the NH season from Steve - and we are running through a plateau in performance of the service with zero progress since July. This does tend to happen with the service although I hope things turnaround soon as we progress into Steves area of expertise.

I've had a look at the stats from 4PA provided by SBC which make interesting analysis. If I had solely followed the basic system bets over 2011 at my current level of £20 per point then I would be £2.3k up on the year! Going back in 2010 this would've been £1.9k. Odds are rarely achievable on the service so lets reduce the 2011 profit by 30% and take the £399 sub into account - which would still mean that I would've made £1.2k net profit year to date.

So why has my profit only been £269 for 2011 - simple reason is that I'd followed the account bets for most of the year rather than the basic system and the official account record (at £20 per point) is only showing a £194 profit.

So what does this mean - well if I just continue to follow the basic system bets than there is decent profit to make despite the cost of subs and the odds of availability. The big question is - could i do it myself for free? The answer is probably not but I've decided to re-subscribe for a shorter period to get the basic system bets and at the same time look at whether it is easy or painful to work it out for myself. I suspect that its the latter rather than the former but will give it a go alongside the subscription and let you know how it goes!

Renewals

A couple of renewals have come up this week - a bit of a surprise but the timing is right - wish I'd planned better for these!

Steve Lewis Hamilton - pretty straightforward this one and will definitely re-subscribe.

4PA - now this one is slightly more thought provoking - firstly the short notice deadline of paying subs - I've got until Friday to decide. Admittedly there has been a long free extension on last years subs so can I really complain - probably not - so I will park my grump there!!

Also the price is the same as last year (but you can subscribe for a shorter period). The question really being - with the under performance of the "tips" vs. the simple "basic system" - is, should the price be the same? Especially considering that you can get the 4PA basic system for free and do the work yourself. Probably not - but could I do the work and get the bets on myself - probably not! So subs price aside, paying to get the basic system bets is probably worth it.

I do have an additional consideration to bring into the mix - what staking is required before I can make money on the service? I haven't made a net profit this year and made a small profit last year so I need to get a bit more ruthless on who I subscribe to and what the net return will be.

So my decision - pending - but the clock is ticking!

Continued Progress

Another good day today with Systematic Betting continuing a promising run and Piecost finally posting a profitable day for the first time in 9 days.

Tuesdays are normally quiet but Systematic delivered 6 winners out of 8 which is impressive after 9 out of 14s yesterday. Here's hoping the run continues - it's been a long time coming.

Got a tough day tomorrow in terms of getting bets on with meetings and travel for my real job taking over again but I can only do what I can do - I read somewhere someone said its the hardest way to make an easy living! Too true.

Couple of things I've been meaning to do and hopefully will get to it in the next couple of weeks is analyse Systematic Betting odds and what strike rates / roi is for different odds horses as well as reviewing my days of the week performance for the overall portfolio.

Weekly Update

Here's the weekly update for the last week (Monday 14th - Sunday 20th).

Overall.. What started as a pretty depressing week with Monday to Thursday providing dismal result after dismal result ended up in profit after a dramatic turnaround over the weekend. Total profit for the week was £114 which doesn't sound like much but when I was £418 down by end of Thursday is a great result. For a change Saturday was the best day of the week - helped mainly by Northern Monkey and bets from The Football Analyst and Mr Gekko Bets. Total of the year is back in the right direction and it may be a sign the treading water is over.... Up to £3,178 for the year by the end of the week.

A good week for... Well a great start really for The Football Analyst delivering me 5 wins out of 6 bets and a £97 profit. Having looked at the systems and reading the reply to my comment - I am following a small number of the systems - 7-21, 7-22, 8-21 and 8-22. Working on a small stake basis of £5 a point - which if I follow these systems could generate up to 4 point bets. Will run with trial stakes for a while and see how it goes. So a good start for once when joining a new service - and all the info is free on the blog - here if you are interested - http://the-football-analyst.blogspot.com/.

A bad week for... Well the wooden spoon goes once again to Piecost who have had another nightmare week with a strike rate of 1 out of 33 this week. Shocking doesn't describe it - and offering up further bets (which admittedly aren't on the account) suggests a wee bit of panic to me. However it's a long term service and I'm sticking with it for a while longer. Pity these runs always happen when services go live. 76 points down in 1.5 months isn't good though.

Other news... I mentioned in an earlier post regarding the success of Northern Monkey - certainly makes me think about the price of subscriptions vs. the success of a service and the two don't necessarily correlate. One of the things I really need to do next year is drive down the cost of subscriptions or increase stakes on the bigger priced services. Suspect I will be doing the former rather than the latter!

Good start to the week today with Systematic Betting delivering a decent profit today - lets hope it keeps going!

Master At Work

I was away for the weekend hence the lack of blog action. Before i respond to comments, complete my weekly update etc I wanted to drop a note in about Northern Monkey. What a service! Struggling to find a service that stakes right, reads races very well and when things go right - spot on! And all for less than £17 a month. Others please take note! Well done Wayne.

Here's the notes for Saturday;

This weekend has been one punters and racing enthusiasts up and down the country have been looking forward to greatly over the past few days - myself included. However, whereas the majority have been poring over the Long Run vs Diamond Harry vs Kauto Star clash in the Betfair Chase, part of a terrific weekend of jumps racing from Ascot and Haydock, I've been struggling to concentrate on anything but the 3 o'clock at Lingfield after seeing the final declarations for this 0-85 handicap on Thursday!

Quite simply, this race has the potential to be run at an absolute hellish gallop and I think there is a very strong angle in looking for a horse that will be delivered late, from off the pace. The fact the race takes place at Lingfield makes the race even more intriguing too because, of the four AW tracks in Britain, you would have to say that it is Lingfield that is most suited to hold up horses, with many runners catapulting themself into late contention after turning the home bend. If we adopt the angle that closers are the ones to be on, LENNY BEE and SUGAR BEET look the pair to focus on.

Lenny Bee has outstanding claims and has a favourites chance. I priced him up at 11/4 before Time Medicean and Bertoliver were withdrawn yesterday and I think there is still a small value margin in his present price. He lost his way when trained by A G Foster but is now trained by the capable Debbie Sanderson and could start to make up for last time as he was a useful handicapper two years ago for David Brown. With an excellent mark in this sphere - he was beaten by a quarter of a length off 10lb higher twelve months ago - I expect him to go very well. He is the most likely winner by some margin.

However, I have decided against backing him as the main bet, purely for reasons of value. I think the better value in the race is with Sugar Beet. Although Ron Harris' charge is a little bit of a quirky customer and undoubtedly deserves to be a bigger price than Lenny Bee, she looks overpriced as, if things drop right, she too has outstanding claims this afternoon, yet can be backed at four times the price (Sporting Bet and Sky offer 10/1 if anyone has an active account with them).

Sugar Beet is a 6f winner at this track but won't mind this 5f trip today, indeed, her subsequent progression has come since stepping back to the minimum trip, over which she won very nicely at Goodwood on her penultimate start. The handicapper reacted with a 7lb rise which demands further improvement from her but, at the age of three, there is good reason to beleive her improvement hasn't stopped and she will be slightly helped by a 1lb drop for her last run at Pontefract, when bumped leaving the stalls and racing out the back of the field in a race not run to suit (also worth acknowledging Lenny Bee finished ahead of her).

There is every chance that Sugar Beet could get scrubbed along out the back of the field and never land a telling blow and Lenny Bee, who I expect to be held-up in mid-division, could win this cosily. However, I am going to stick to my principals and side with Sugar Beet as I think the potential margin for value in her price is considerably greater than that if we were to back Lenny Bee. Rather than going in on Sugar Beet with a big each-way bet, however, I am advising Backing Lenny Bee as a saver as his odds of 5/2 are slightly bigger than the 2/1 from a Sugar Beet place (in a race paying each-way at a quarter of the odds. There are also only 8 runners left in the race and if another horse were to withdraw we'd only get paid out each way on two places) and I also want to have an egg in two baskets, rather than one, in the event of traffic trouble (which is quite possible given the way the race may unfold).

Advised bet: Lenny Bee 5/2 Paddypower, 0.75 pt win

Sugar Beet 9/1 Ladbrokes, 1.5 pt win

And the result taken from Sporting Life:

Pos.	Dr.	Dist.	Horse	Wt	Jockey	Trainer	Age	SP
1	2		Sugar Beet	9-4	L Morris	R Harris	3	8/1
		in touch, ridden and headway entering final furlong, driven to lead final 75 yards opened 13/2 touched 8/1
2	9	nk	Lenny Bee	9-3 t	J P Fahy (3)	Mrs D Sanderson	5	11/4
		in rear, ridden and headway approaching final furlong, ran on, not reached winner opened 3/1 touched 3/1 £825-£300

Enough said!

So Close

The margins sometimes in this game are very tight - the case and point being the 1.05 at Wincanton with Steve Lewis Hamilton Calico Rose coming third missing out by 1/2 a length. Harder to take as I'd also bet on Wise Hawk beaten by a head in the same race. Wise Hawk followed through the great TVB blog by the way.

Then Emily's Flyer failing to win in the 4pm at Hereford for Systematic after apparently trading at 1.01 on betfair topped off another losing day which with those results turning around would have been a bumper day. I am amazed at the difference short heads, heads, necks, half lengths etc make to the profit margins - the problem being that it's more likely to fall on the wrong side rather than the right side!

Lets get the hoof forward for a Fabulous Friday??

This is the losing week!

So the vicious circle of winning spell followed by losing spell continues this week with three losing days in a row contributing to what is turning into a miserable week. The lack of progress is soul destroying at times. The damage has been minimal this week but when you go nowhere you do wonder why you do this!!

High volume services like Systematic and Piecost continue to perform poorly with very little progress being made. While there appeared to be light at the end of the tunnel last week, we're back to square one again.

The lack of bets from Steve Lewis Hamilton is also telling - is he scared to enter the market or is the quality / type of racing just not worth taking the risk and he's doing the right thing in biding his time.

Whatever is going on I'd like to get out this rut!!

As I mentioned I'm starting following The Football Analyst bets from this weekend and am just in the process of working out which systems to follow and how it all works. Will keep you posted as definitely looks like a promising site to follow (and it's free!!)

Back Under

Well back down to earth with a bump today with a losing day - can't win them all!

Quiet day but takes me back under the £3k ytd figure yet again.

Steve Lewis Hamilton has been quiet recently for the start of the NH season but I've started following the mentions again so will see how that goes - was quite profitable last NH season so hopefully a good addition for this season.

Weekly Update

On the ball this week with my update!

Overall... A near perfect week with only Thursday letting me down. 6 winning days out of 7 and a profit of £752. If only all weeks could be like this! Brings the annual total to £3,064 and nice to be back over the £3k mark again!! Which amazingly is the 8th time this year I've been over the £3k level. The month of November is now in profit as well at £157 profit. Doesn't sound much but is good progress! A hard week in terms of getting the bets on as I was out and about quite a bit and used betfair mainly - to be fair prices have held up ok and haven't been impacted too much.

A good week for.... Systematic has performed well this week and put on 20+ profits so is this the start of the turnaround? Good week for Piecost too and nice to see a turnaround for this service with what has been a challenging start. Market Examiner also delivered profit this week and again it would be good is this was start of a change of fortune. Northern Monkey turned around a relatively poor spell, Steve Lewis Hamilton in profit and 4PA continues well!

A bad week for... a clean sheet this week so no one in the betting world to nominate! I'd like to start a rant about Mike Ashley and Derek Llambias but that's not really what this blog is all about.

Other news. I'm thinking about following some of the picks that come through the excellent blog http://the-football-analyst.blogspot.com/ run by Graeme Dand. Certainly looks interesting, and really progresses my aim of diversifying and not relying totally on horse racing. Equine re-start their services the last weekend of November so will be good to get back into that and hopefully will deliver more profit throughout the all weather season.

The blogosphere is awash with betting and trading blogs - many of which are great reads and I keep coming across more and more to nose at. What I don't see many of is blogs like mine where the blogger follows a number of tipsters - Playing It Safe is a good read - but if there is any more out there that someone can point me to that'd be great.

Here's to a good betting week!

In Place

Decent day today and nice to see Saturday being successful.

A rare winning Saturday for Systematic was great to see, as was a good profit from Market Examiner which have finally turned the month into profit! Could I see my first winning month with Market Examiner this month? Here's hoping!

Slightly frustrated with my 4PA bets in the main race at Cheltenham with My Shamwari finishing 5th - and usually I'm very careful with checking place terms on these races but I missed the bet365 5 place offer and put the bet through Ladbrokes instead. So a £40 loss registered rather than a small profit on the bet.

Lets hope the good run continues.

Flatline

Well the title and graph says it all - since 30 June 2011 I have chugged along winning some days, losing other days, winning some weeks, losing some weeks and 4 months later the vicious circle continues.

Why is it happening??

Well i'm often criticized for having too many services so I did some quick analysis tonight on what would have happened if i hadn't been following one particular service over another and while there has been progressive growth with some services like Equine Turnover and Northern Monkey the remainder of services have pretty much flatlined at best since the turning point of the year. This surprised me - I'll be honest I thought Systematic Betting was the cause of the flatlining and while it has contributed to it - it's not the only service that is treading water at the moment. So unless I'd just followed Equine Turnover and Northern Monkey through pure chance then any mix of service would've delivered similar results.

Certainly a few services are due a change of fortune - Systematic, Piecost and Market Examiner are delivering plenty places that surely will bring wins instead over time but other services haven't performed - SLH, Equine and 4PA have all been below par for a long period.

So where do I go from here? How long do I wait for everything to turnaround - whether it is fortune, statistics or performance?

Answers on a postcard...

Weekly Update

A slightly later than planned weekly update for last week.

Overall. A disappointing week with a loss of £569 posted. Only 2 small winning days out of 7. So not a good week and certainly one I was getting thoroughly fed up with - so not a good start to the month of November. Clearly not helped by missing 3 bets on Saturday - all of which won and 3 winning bets from Mr Gekko Bets midweek. That cost me £300 and I only have myself to blame but it's a great example of how luck plays its part.

No excuses for missing the MGBets - I just forgot, but Saturday was an example of luck and also how difficult it is to have a normal life and try to run a portfolio. I was out and about with a few friends at the football and I simply couldn't get the bets on as there was no network data coverage in the ground. I gave up because I actually wanted to watch the match rather than try to get bets on!! Typically they were 2 of the 4 winners from Systematic and the 1 winner from SLH. Argghhhh... But c'est la vie - I've missed plenty losing bets so I presume it all evens out - just frustrating! Well at least Newcastle won and it was a great day out!

A good week for.... no one! Certainly not me. Although it's worth pointing out I use a service called "Racing Angles" for advice and I place small personal bets sometimes on the back of that info. That delivered the winner Zuider Zee in the November Handicap so that offset some of the losses as I had a fiver on at 14/1.

A bad week for... me! See overall!

Other news. Other than the whole thing hacking me off at the moment... I have switched my betting on the Market Examiner to e/w - evidence suggests that a large number of horses place so I'm going to see if it's worth pursuing. Certainly worked today with one place and one winning bet increasing profit.

October Review - Part 3

Final service to review for October;

Piecost Premium Selections -42.33pts (-£212). Dreadful start to my piecost subscription with the service suffering a 2nd hefty losing month in a row. Missed the first month so started October with anticipation that profit will be forthcoming... timing is everything!! An email from Piecost has reassured me that losing streaks are within parameters but the service does need to turnaround if it isn't going to wipe out the 150pt bank that is recommended. I'm only playing Piecost on Betfair as I don't want more cash going through my bookies for now and as I'm taking early prices I'm only 97% off the recommended price so seems to be working ok from that respect. Not sure of the BOG impact though although the service officially lost 35 points so doesn't seem to be that much. Here's hoping November turns things around.

October Review - Part 2

Apologies I have neglected the blog recently for a variety of reasons but am back in business and will complete the October review finally!

Systematic Betting -38.65pts (-£773). A miserable month for Systematic Betting which has is part of a long period of treading water. Since the beginning of June I've made £468 on this service which isn't enough to justify the sub cost for me. Clearly if I was playing to higher stakes that would be fine but I'm not. Admittedly this has been a spell that hasn't been experienced before and the evidence is clear that the long term profit is there - would be nice to get back on the winning road though. There was a decent recovery at the end of the month - at one point the service was down a whopping 63 points on the month. Headline rate suggests a return of -18.4 points - a whopping 20 points difference to where I got to - which shows how difficult it is to get prices on this service (and that best price is often with shocking bookies like Stan James which one has no chance in hell of getting a bet on with). I'd be interested to see what the return of the service was if we took out SJ prices.

Mr Gekko Bets (-£71). I've not put a points figure here as the staking changed during the month following the pause in service. While I was getting frustrated with the service there is no doubt you have to give MrG some praise for taking things back to basics, re-evaluating the service and getting things back out there. The new criteria seem to be working and things certainly have picked up for the end of the month. Would be good to claw back the losses incurred quickly and start enjoying this service again. I changed my stake from £35 a point to £10 a point so will probably keep with £10 until Christmas and then re-assess.

Part 3 later.

October Review - Part 2 - the ongoing saga

I'm having a bit of a mare at the moment as I've lost my charger for my laptop so am now tapping away on my wifes netbook! But it does mean I've no access to my spreadsheets and data so I can't complete a full review of October and needed my stats to complete my thoughts on Systematic Betting in October so will continue with that as soon as I can.

Much apologies for those of you waiting for the update - been a frustrating week for many reasons!!

Looks like today was another losing day but only just. Treading water is probably the best way to describe things!

Nothing much else to report at the moment although the pressure of a full time job and trying to get the bets on has been tough this week and it all becomes a bit wearing when there's little progress in the profit.

October Review - Part 2 - Coming soon

Never got a chance to post last night as a quick trip to the pub ended up with a few pints of San Miguel being drunk! Never go near the computer if I've had a few drinks - would maybe make for livelier posts though!

A struggle today therefore so won't make much sense at this time of night tonight so will post further tomorrow.

November hasn't started too well and frustratingly missed the Mr Gekko Bets for Tuesday night - all three won so lost about £50 profit there. I suppose it is karma for the extra profit I made last week!

As a side note a healthy debate about the BetButler service on the smartsig forum has been keeping me interested over the last few days. Worth a read of the emails if you are a member.

October Review - Part 1

A tremendous win for the mighty Toon tonight has fair cheered me up. Up to third so will enjoy that while it lasts!

So October started very well, fell apart during the middle of the month and then recovered slightly towards the end but it wasn't enough to finish in profit with a £323 loss posted. There really was a mixed bag of results from the portfolio but with Systematic having a very poor month there was little chance of ending up in profit.

A review of each of the services;

Steve Lewis Hamilton. -1.65 pts (-£83). Moved to level stakes in October but didn't work in my favour but despite there being 6 one point bets in the month the difference in loss was only £60 thanks to Wherrimon winning on the 27th. Poor month really for Steve and hope he picks up now the NH season is fully under way.

Equine Investments / Turnover. Out of season for both services really this month and nothing really to write home about with both services dropping a small amount. Hopefully pick up again once the AW season gets into full swing!

Northern Monkey. +27.65 pts (+£274). Tremendous month for Northern Monkey, in the main due to My Girl Anna winning with a 3 point bet. Ignoring this bet would be wrong as Wayne got the point structure of this bet perfect. Top rated bet and wins. Continues to impress at a very low cost.

Football Elite. +1.37 pts (+£34). Topsy Turvy month for Football Elite but good to see profit and a stabilisation of the service. Many suggest I should up my stakes with Football Elite but I think I'd like to see another season of good performance before I do that.

4PA. +24.18 pts (+£484). After a dreadful start to the month which appeared to herald a terminal decline 4PA has bounced back with tremendous results - both Edinburgh Knight and Exmoor Ranger being the highlights. Clear though that the basic system bet is delivering the profit and not the additional thoughts of PCB. Certainly following the BSB staking this month delivered additional profit that would've been lost if following the official staking. Question is - what happens now with the subscription of the service? Any SBC member has access to the system and could do the work themselves. Be interested to see - I'd probably pay for the bsb so I don't have to do the work.

Part 2 tomorrow!

Weekly Update

Obviously today we've reached the end of the month so will be doing some number crunching later. Thought I'd do the weekly update first though.

Overall. Bit of a mixed bag of a week with 4 good winning days giving an overall total for the week of £227. Always good to have a profitable week clearly!! I was hoping that there would be enough to turn October into profit but unfortunately not and looks like I've had another poor month. While the Saturday debate continues - this Saturday was a profitable one so pleasing to see - thanks in the main to the 4PA basic system bet again outperforming the tips.

A good week for... Mr Gekko Bets looks like it may have started the turnaround. A few points profit added to the weekly total with both midweek and weekend bets ending up positively. Clearly I've reduced my stake beyond what was recommended and not a lot of £ profit made but decent return points-wise and its good to see. I will keep going for another couple of weeks on £10 a point and decide whether I'm going to re-stake.

A bad week for... Piecost. No doubt the dunce of the week and October looks like following September as a losing month. I don't think from emails that Piecost have sent that there is anything to worry about it's just disappointing joining a service on a two month losing streak. Pretty sure things will turnaround!

Other news... I've renewed my subs to Systematic for another 6 months. Hopefully the current spell of treading water will come to an end soon. Not much progress has been made over the last few months and it would be good to see this turnaround - especially with subs cost of £750 for six months. I had considered increasing my staking for Systematic to £25 per point as surely we're due a decent run. But think I might be pushing it a bit too far.

Back soon with a look back at the month.

Another decent day

Forgot to mention that luck also played in my favour last night as Football Elite bet was lost when Atalanta missed a last minute penalty and I'd completely forgotten to put the bet on. So a relief for me that I didn't miss a winner but gut wrenching if I'd actually had the cash on!!

Another decent day today and the profit total has ticked over the £3k mark again for the year. Nice to finally get a winner from Steve Lewis Hamiltion which breaks a poor run (and finally my level staking paid off!!) and Systematic Betting continue to turn things around. Couple of solid places from Northern Monkey adding to things with only Piecost failing to deliver with the 2nd blank day in a row - I'm down 39 points on the month (thankfully I'm on test stakes of £5 a bet) but I'm reassured that its one of these services that can have long losing runs but bounce back.

Nothing much else happening - just hopeful the good spell continues into the weekend...

The Saturday debate continues

For those of you who are SBC members I started up a topic on the forum a few weeks ago regarding Saturday betting - seems to have generated some discussion - well worth a read here;

http://secretbettingclub.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=622&start=20

You need to be a member to view.

Luck plays it part

Would be fair today to say that luck played a part in me making a profit of just over £100 today. I was in a meeting for most of the day which meant that I missed the SLH telephone call, and 6 other bets. Fortunately all lost and meant I was up on the day rather than taking a loss. Nice to have these things work in my favour for a change.

With a little more luck we could end the month on profit although I've got £473 to make up to get there - we shall see but looks like October will chalk up as a losing month - the 5th of the year so far.

I'd always set myself an unofficial target of making a modest £20 gross profit a day - doesn't sound like much but this year so far I've only managed only £9.26 per day. If that tells you one thing - is that this is a tough business!

Turning a corner

A decent day today with both Systematic and Piecost delivering profit. Certainly today helped by me mistakenly staking £20 on Comrade Bond (a Piecost tip) rather than the £5 I should've staked! It duly obliged! Nice to get a mistake delivering for a change...

Also started betting on Mr Gekko Bets again - have moved back to £10 a point due to the increased number of bets. Seems the removal of the filters have done the trick - there was 5.5pts profit over the weekend (which I missed) and another 3.3pts today for me. Will continue to bet and review stakes in a couple of months. Probably goes against what I have said in terms of dropping services but feels right considering the review Mr Gekko took and the tweeks made to the service. Be good to continue with more than 1 football service in my portfolio.

Weekly Update

Well that was interesting... as if by magic Systematic Betting produce a belter of a day and clawed back 21 points today - is this the turnaround??

Overall. Another losing week although it ended up not being as bad as it could have been with a £329 loss, but thanks to today it doesn't feel too bad. Clearly not great obviously and it would be good if things could start turning around!! Three winning days but Saturday was another shocker and the damage was done. Dust ourselves down and look forward to another week!

A good week for... This week the honour go to Northern Monkey for having the balls to put out a 3 point bet on a 10/1 shot and it smashing home. Certainly glad I kept my subscription going and for £49.99 a quarter it's difficult to find a service that offers better value for money.

A bad week for... It was going to be 2 weeks in a row for Systematic but redemption today so I'm afraid it goes to Piecost - 15 points lost this week but again a high volume service so suspect things will turnaround soon.

Other news... Getting into the NH season proper now so will see how that develops over the next few weeks. Fingers crossed I can start the trading this week. Mr Gekko started sending bets again this weekend but I haven't checked if results have improved - I decided not to follow (on MGB's advice) but will see how things pan out over the next few weekends before making the final decision.

Onwards and upwards!

Challenging

Sorry for the lack of posts over the last few days - as I mentioned in the weekly update this week was going to be challenging in terms of work and getting bets on at the same time. While I managed to get everything done it may have been better if I hadn't bothered!!

Certainly been a challenging week with Systematic Betting dropping another 30 points over 6 losing days which brings the current losing streak since the 7th October to 73 points. Not sure how it compares to other Systematic losing runs but feels by far the worst since I joined and is certainly punishing the betting bank and the portfolio.

Graph below shows Systematic performance since 1 August and certainly not moving forward. I've chosen 1 August simply because thats when I upped my stakes to £20 a point.

Admittedly while the current run is worrying I know from past results that the service will turn things around and we'll get back to winning ways - it's just part of the game getting through these runs - and that's mainly about psychology.

With Piecost, Steve Lewis Hamilton, Equine and 4PA all underperforming this week it's been a frustrating time... again...

The only bright spot being the top 3 pointer My Girl Anna from Northern Monkey on Wednesday winning at 8/1 for me. So glad I re-subscribed to Northern Monkey and finally a service where I upped my stakes at the right time.

On the trading front I've managed to download the software and have a tinker with it but haven't yet had the time to get my teeth in and try it out - am hoping to do that at some point this week.

Weekly Update

Just on my back from a cracking game of football at St James Park. Scorcher of a goal from Ameobi. Good day today on the betting front with a decent profit made.

Weekly update covers Mon - Sun.

Overall - down £184 on the week so a good recovery from the two profitable days out of the 7. Unusually these two days were on Saturday and Sunday which as we all know are two of the toughest days to make a profit. Doesn't feel too bad after the weekend and hopefully that's another poor run tackled and we can move onwards and upwards. So YTD just sitting shy of £3k gross profit. Need a whack above that to turn the net loss into profit before the end of the year.

A good week for.. no doubt about it, the week belongs to 4PA and the basic system bets. 2 winners and a place made for very happy reading on Saturday night and while I didn't get the 33/1 for Edinburgh Knight I'm satisfied with the 25/1 a did get. Definitely still feels the basic system bet is the place to be. Interesting to see what they do at the end of October when subs are due.

A bad week for.. unfortunately it's got to be Systematic Betting - just over £500 down on the week so a poor period. The large volume of bets means things can turnaround quickly and can easily recoup that loss in a day or so. Hopefully fortune turns and things will start to head back in the right direction.

Other news.. interesting to see The Football Analyst (see http://the-football-analyst.blogspot.com/) having a top quality weekend with results. Have been tracking the results to see if they matched the general trend of Mr Gekko Bets which they appeared to have over the last few weeks. Now does this mean that maybe MG was a bit premature in pulling the service - or at least letting us have the bets without adding to the official account? I'd be interested to know and extremely frustrated if it was a very profitable weekend.

Looking forward.. desperate to get tucked into the horse trading but I'm not sure it's going to be possible this week -am away with work for a few days this week and standard betting will be tough (if possible at all) never mind getting trading up and running.

Super Saturday

I sometimes feel the general tone of the blog is negative with me constantly lamenting how badly things are going so I thought it was time for a positive post.

Finally had a winning Saturday with £434 profit yesterday. First positive Saturday since 27 August! The success was from an unlikely source as well with 4PA basic system bets delivering the whacking profit - through Dancing Rain and Edinburgh Knight winning and a healthy place from Castles in the air. As mentioned I played the basic system bet rather than the 4PA bets which delivered more profit than if i'd followed the account so extra happy with that. As a recent poster mentioned there could be some merit in continuing with the basic system as it's still delivering healthy profit.

Northern Monkey, Steve Lewis Hamilton and Football Elite all delivered positive returns while Piecost and Systematic's poor runs continue.

Poor run continues

Well after soaring to new highs late last week we plunge to new depths today with an astonishing £1,400 lost since last Saturday. I don't often criticise Systematic Betting but it's certainly been a shocking 8 days with 41 points lost. Yikes! Things can turnaround quickly with Systematic but the service feels like its been treading water since I upped my stakes to £20 per point!

Steve Lewis Hamilton isn't on a great run either - 4 losing bets in a row - bringing us back even for the month with my new level staking!!

And Finally Piecost have managed to turnaround a profitable month into a losing one over the last couple of days!!

I did say I wouldn't worry too much about the short term but it's hard work sometimes!!

Anyway at least we have Saturday to look forward to....

To Diversify or Not To Diversify

One of the things that often gets commented on or observed about my portfolio is that I follow too many tipsters. This doesn't surprise me and it's something that constantly troubles me - do I indeed follow too many tipsters?

My reason for doing this is diversification! But does it work?

When I first started this game I started out with The Mathematician, followed by Steve Lewis Hamilton, followed by God knows how many tipsters - truth was at that time I wasn't really thinking about diversification I was thinking about making as much cash as possible in as short a time possible!

But more recently the main reason for following the number of tipsters I do is to diversify. Clearly we all know what this means - when one tipster runs poorly, one does well and it smooths out the profit curve. It's an age old principle of investing.

Of course diversification does work - but I suspect the problem with my portfolio is that diversification isn't just about racking up the number of tipsters its about making sure that those tipsters focus on different areas of business just as you should spread your investments across the four main asset classes. Additionally though my staking is incorrect and not appropriate for some services - in other words staking is too low to ever make some services profitable.

So what do my tipsters cover and how do they operate;

Steve Lewis Hamilton - Racing - mainly National Hunt - opinion

Equine Investments - Racing - flat / aw - opinion

Equine Turnover - Racing - flat / aw - opinion

Northern Monkey - Racing - flat / aw - opinion

Football Elite - Football (European major leagues) - opinion

4PA - Racing - mainly big races / tv fodder - system / opinion

Systematic - Racing - All - system

Mr Gekko - Football (UK football) - system

Piecost - Racing - All (handicaps?) - system

Market Examiner - Racing - All - opinion

Clearly as betting portfolios go it's one that is heavily focused on racing, more focused on opinion than system and more focused on flat than national hunt. So while I think I have diversified the reality is that I haven't enough. Which doesn't mean that I am going to sign up to more tipsters - so don't worry!!

What probably needs done is some re-balancing and re-adjusting. This all needs supported by realistic staking which ensures that the portfolio is balanced in terms of funding and the weighting isn't to heavy on one service. I want to also add a few things to increase the opportunity for making money out of this business.

So what am I doing?

Well a few things;

1) While I'm still getting the emails from 4PA I will continue to follow the basic system bets. Once subs come up for renewal I'm likely to drop the service and not follow the basic bets at all. Think there is profit there in the long term but time to move on.

2) Dependent on the outcome of Mr Gekko Bets review I am likely to finish following this service - I won't be paying to re-subscribe.

3) Once my subscription of Equine Main is complete I won't renew. This isn't a criticism of the service - but a reality in so much that I can't make the service work for me on the stakes I can afford to play with. It's hard to get prices as well and the combination of the two make it the wrong service for me to follow.

4) I will use some of the stakes saved from stopping following services to increase my staking in remaining services.

5) I am going to look at some of the racing stats support services - and see if I can use these to create my own betting systems

6) I want to start trading and I've spent some money on the services of www.horseracingtraders.com just before the doors closed on subscribers. In the short term will only be able to dip in and out of this but I am quite excited at trying to work at this. Have got a few hours on a train on Sunday going to the football so will review all the info and strategies then.

A number of things therefore that will help improve diversification - it won't make things perfect but should help spread risk and improve profitability.

So a long post which has helped me get some things in my head down and has rambled along a winding route, ending where I hadn't expected when I started.

Of course, comments welcome.

September Update - Part 2

Before continuing with the September review just wanted to mention that when doing the daily totals tonight I'd actually reached a new high for the year which surprised me - a welcome surprise though with yearly total peaking at £3,896 on 7th October. But no time to celebrate as a dismal performance over the last few days (mainly from Systematic Betting) has seen the YTD total drop back by £1,199. Some feat losing £1,200 in 5 days!! Suppose it reminds me of one thing - that things can rise and fall quite quickly in this game and don't worry too much about the short term.

Anyway back to September - here's the table of points and cash earned for the month;

And here's the graph for YTD to end of September;

As I said yesterday - ended up being a pleasing month - lets hope October can get out this awful period and come up the same way.

More thoughts tomorrow.

September Update - Part 1

Finally managed to get back up to speed on the spreadsheets and have logged all the bets. Just working out the analysis but a brief summary of September performance below.

Total profit for the month was £634 which was a pleasant surprise bearing in mind the month wasn't progressing much at all until towards the end of the month.

A good month for a number of services - Steve Lewis Hamilton, Equine Turnover, Systematic Betting all providing decent levels of profit backed up by Football Elite with a good 2nd month of the season. Unfortunately the overall profit was brought down significantly by terrible months from Mr Gekko Bets and 4PA - and we all know these services appear to be in some disarray.

Taking subs into account the month was also profitable - I estimate this to be just shy of £200 a month. This is clearly well short of where I want to be post subs, but with the way things have been going recently I take this as a positive.

Will post points total / latest graph further thoughts over next day or so.

Pause in service

No I haven't come to my senses and decided to jack this all in. Just thought it was worth posting that Mr Gekko has put a pause on the football service after another disasterous weekend.

I have to say I appreciate the honesty and communications from this service but do feel that some background investigation should've been going on while bets were still available to prevent a break in service. But fair play on holding their hands up and we shall see what comes out the other end!

My likely view is pretty much whatever the outcome, that i'll probably stop following though.

Up to my eyes...

....in spreadsheet updates at the moment trying to get September finished and bring October up to date.

Will have it done over the next few days and update with some further thoughts after yesterday.

Back to work tomorrow...

Stinker

I head home tomorrow after my break and get back to the grind of working life... This week had ticked up nicely in terms of profit and things were looking rosy until we hit Saturday and I've had yet another stinker of a Saturday. I've not totted up the total losses for the day yet but Betfair alone is sitting at -£504 on its own before I look at returns from bookie bets - first indications are you can add another £100+ to the losses.

Mr Gekko and 4PA both had complete wipeouts. These services are both disasters at the moment. For 4PA its the 3rd weekend in 4 that there has been a complete wipe out. All the more depressing and frustrating when the basic system (which is free from SBC) would've delivered a small profit today. Annoyingly this morning, I'd debated as to whether I should just follow the basic system or advised from now on.

My knee jerk reaction is to stop following both these services, accept the losses and move on in the direction i was wanting to head in. I should accept the fact that they might turn around in the future but be confident that I'm better spending my hard earned money on more reliable services. Clearly I can follow the basic 4PA system without paying a £400 pa sub (although advised service is currently free due to poor performance).

In terms of Saturday betting today has been another clear indication that Saturdays should be set aside and enjoyed rather than slogging over a pc getting bets on for half the day. Do I do this though??? Who knows.

Progress / Piecost

Looks like things have gone well over last few days - haven't managed to bring things up to date but progress definitely made.

Will be interested to see if September ends up in profit - October has certainly started well.

Piecost have started well with the launch of the full service from 1st October - looks like for once I have joined at the right time after a poor month during the free period in September which I missed. Feels like a good service in terms of communication / service as well as tips. Glad I got in. I'm only betting small trial stakes on this service for first 2-3 months (£5 per point) to get a feel for it. Additionally am only betting on betfair and will watch how this impacts ROI - its a heavy betting service in terms of volume and throwing more bets at the bookies is potentially going to damage my accounts. If the ROI holds up at levels suggest for Betfair then it looks like it could still be a very profitable service.

Back on a regular basis next week. Good luck with your betting in the meantime

Scorchio!

Now.. I bet you thought that title related to the hot weather at the moment - I chose a good week to holiday in the UK!

But really I was referring to Equine Turnover form - a 20/1 winner on Thurs and 16/1 winner today! Struggled with odds today though and best I could get was 10/1 rather than 16/1 quoted - more to do with a short delay in getting on for me but I noticed SP was 4/1 so cracking value bet!

A brief post really also to say I've published, read and commented on all recent comments - thanks for input. Worth reading comments if you don't already.

Still on hols - betting been easy to get on in the main although my laptop is now playing up. Visiting family tomorrow so may struggle to get bets on - maybe not a bad thing considering this weeks days of the week topic!

What a difference a day makes - part 2

Thanks for all the comments from last nights post - good to generate a bit of debate. Certainly food for thought and what to do on Saturday!

Profitable today thanks in the main to Northern Monkey who got us a 12/1 winner and a 9/1 place - perfect timing for my new staking! Systematic ticked up another notch today with a small profit but a loser from Equine Turnover.

As I mentioned I thought I'd look at Systematic Betting daily and here are 2011 figures;

Monday +£1,439

Tuesday +£1,156

Wednesday +£621

Thursday -£1,349

Friday +£452

Saturday +£22

Sunday -£532

So slightly different profile to the portfolio and the early part of the week is much more profitable than the latter half. Thursday is a shocker, and Sunday is poor, whereas there is a scrape of a profit on Saturday. (quick addition - my numbers for systematic aren't reconciling but they are only a few quid out so doesn't impact the overall point)

Interesting figures. Sunday racing quality is generally poor so our argument that competitive racing makes it difficult doesn't stack up with that.

Anyway more food for thought. Comments / thoughts welcome.

Couple of additional points tonight;

* I've signed up to the Piecost Private Service - this is the type of service I want to follow going forward - based on systems rather than opinion. This statement may seem at odds with me signing up for another 3 months with Northern Monkey but Waynes service is profitable so why give it up? Additionally good "opinion" services - SLH, Equine Turnover are worth keeping going while I shift from other services to ratings / system services as well as look at other potential angles (i.e. trading / my own systems).

* I'm about to head off on holiday for 10 days, which will involve a bit of a tour round the UK visiting friends and family. The iphone and laptop are coming with me so plan to be betting but the blog posting may be slightly more erratic.

Good luck!